NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: COACH OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

We’re going right down the line, looking at NFL individual futures and making the best bet predictions. We’ve already covered possible comeback players of the year. Now we turn our attention to the guys calling the shots.

NFL 2020 COACH OF THE YEAR

Last year’s winner, John Harbaugh, shows specifically the kind of coach that nabs this trophy at the end of every season. While many thought the Baltimore Ravens would improve in Lamar Jackson’s first full year as a starter, no one expected a 14-2 campaign that netted home field advantage in the AFC playoffs.

And while the Ravens squandered that advantage with a divisional round loss to the Tennessee Titans, the votes for Harbaugh were already cast.

In 2018, Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy claimed the award for many of the same reasons, leading his team to double-digit wins for the first time in a while and to the playoffs. 2017’s winner, the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay, did the same.

The “coach of the year” isn’t the best coach. Otherwise, they’d just hand it to Bill Belichick every year with the occasional nod to Andy Reid. The better way to think of it is an award for the NFL’s most surprising team. A team that did next to nothing the year before and that, maybe, little is expected from this season.

As of right now, Belichick, Frank Reich, Kevin Stefanski and Kliff Kingsbury are all tied atop the odds at +1200 and, for once, Belichick might actually be in the running. Even with Cam Newton at quarterback, if he can get the New England Patriots to 12 or more wins, he might be a guaranteed recipient of this award.

What could derail that is those other guys. I’m going to say that I feel the cutoff for a “coach of the year” is 11 wins. While 10 might be good enough to make the playoffs, I feel like that one more victory makes all the difference. Because of that, I think you can mark off Kingsbury. The Arizona Cardinals will definitely be better this season, but there’s just no way they win 11 games playing six against the NFC West.

Stefanski too will need to seriously compete for a division title to claim this award. Of the four, I honestly think Reich is your best bet. With Philip Rivers as his QB, the Indianapolis Colts will be at least a touchdown better per game and doing the math on last year’s schedule, an extra TD would have made them finish 13-3. If the Colts go 13-3 this season, Reich’s getting the trophy.

Looking outside that favored group, there’s a real opportunity to make some money with some longer odds. I feel like the whole of NFL punditry is sleeping on the Los Angeles Rams this year, especially with the advantage the warm-weather teams will have in fighting COVID-19. The Rams at 12-13 wins could net McVay (+3000) that award easily since they missed the playoffs last year.

Don’t overlook Dan Quinn (+3300) and the Atlanta Falcons. They have the roster and offensive talent to make anything happen and, considering he was nearly fired last season, a “coach of the year” nod for a 12-win campaign would be pretty easy to justify.

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