NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

It’s easy to look at the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year Award as a consolation prize. If it doesn’t go to the guy who won the league MVP, it usually goes to the best non quarterback offensive player. Most of the time, that’s a running back.

In fact, only three times in the award’s history (since 1972) has it not been awarded to a QB or RB. And two of those went to Jerry Rice. The third went to New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas last season.

When placing a wager on this one, you basically have to decide if it will be a season where a guy like Patrick Mahomes takes home both the MVP and OPOTY or will it go to the best non QB?

Let’s take a look.

2020 NFL OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Since 2010, the Offensive Player of the Year and MVP were given to the same guy seven times. In that same decade span, six OPOTY awards went to quarterbacks. If you’re playing the odds, the smart money says that it will probably happen again

Patrick Mahomes at +600 is the favorite for good reason. He’s coming off a Super Bowl championship and won both the MVP and OPOTY in 2018.

Right behind him sits 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson at +900. Again, a solid pick if you think he can put up the same kind of numbers he did last year.

Russell Wilson sits at third at +1200 and, as good as he is, does not play in an offense that uses his talents properly. He’ll never put up the kind of numbers required to take this trophy home. That doesn’t mean he can’t win the MVP, but OPOTY is a stat award. Wilson just won’t have them.

So what does it take for a non QB to hoist this award? A pretty historic statistical season. Last year Michael Thomas caught 149 passes. The next closest guy was Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey with 116 receptions. The next closest wide receiver was the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen with 104. Thomas nearly lapped him. Not only did Thomas lead the league by far in catches, he led the league in yardage with 1,725. The next closest guy? The Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones with 1,394 yards. Nobody was even close.

2017 winner Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing touchdowns, scored 19 total TDs and ran and received for 2,093 yards. That was the year Tom Brady claimed his third MVP trophy and did so without the stats to claim both.

Considering Mahomes is likely to throw 50 touchdowns this season if he stays healthy, you’ll probably need a guy to do something historic, akin to Thomas’ insane season, to beat him out for the Offensive Player of the Year Award.

And, really, there’s only one guy I can see doing it and we’ve already mentioned him; Christian McCaffrey. Last year McCaffrey rushed for 1,387 yards and caught 1,005 yards worth of passes. He was the NFL’s second leading receiver after Thomas and scored 19 total touchdowns. If he put up those same numbers and scored, maybe 25 TDs, he’s a contender and comes with a +1400 payoff.

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