NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS: DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

We come to the last of our preseason awards in the knick of time. There is a definitive advantage when it comes to the Defensive Rookie of the Year, but it comes from a myriad of positions. The Associated Press wants to hand this to a guy who sacks quarterbacks for the most part, with pass rushers taking it five times in the last 10 years. But they have been awarded to outside linebackers in 3-4 defenses, defensive ends and defensive tackles.

But you can still win it from the defensive line even if you don’t get after the quarterback as then New York Jets rookie Sheldon Richardson and his 3.5 sacks did in 2013. Before San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa took home the award last year, a pass rusher hadn’t claimed it since his brother Nick, with the then San Diego Chargers, in 2016.

We’ve had two inside linebackers nab it (Luke Kuechly -2012 and Darius Leonard – 2018), a cornerback (Marcus Peters – 2015) and a safety (Marshon Lattimore – 2017).

The point is, while it seems like their could be a pattern, there’s really no pattern. The best guy gets it and there’s no automatically telling who that’s going to be.

But, we can still look at who might have the best shot.

2020 NFL DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

As of this writing, with the season on the verge of kicking off, the Washington Football Team’s Chase Young is the odds-on favorite to take home the award at +200.

Considering the chaos surrounding this award, the fact that he’s got those kinds of odds is huge. You’ve seen guys that have won it. Four of them have been Top Five picks (Both Bosas, Ndamukong Suh – 2010 and Von Miller – 2011). The rest have all been picked later, with Keuchly as the highest of the bunch (No. 9 overall in 2012). Leonard was a second rounder.

What are Young’s chances? I’m not sure. While I do feel like he’ll have a great year, the WFT is playing a real schedule, opening against the Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals, then with a brief respite facing the Cleveland Browns, square up with the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams. These are not teams prone to give up sacks. In spite of their offensive line issues last season, the Rams gave up the fewest sacks in the NFL.

While 12 sacks from a DE might be enough to make Washington very happy, it probably won’t be enough to claim this award outright.

So let’s talk about a guy who might play for a contender; Isaiah Simmons (+500). The Arizona Cardinals are expected to be better across the board, and while I don’t see them making the playoffs, they’ll not be out of it until December.

Baltimore Ravens rookie linebacker Patrick Queen (+1000) is going to have every opportunity to become a household name as the Ravens come to your TV screen each week. San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw (+2500) is being plugged into an elite group around him and should rarely be double-teamed.

But for my money, Simmons is the play here. He’ll record 130 tackles, five picks and live on Sportscenter this season.

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