2020 Team Preview: Can Oregon Defend Its Pac-12 Title?

The 2019 college football season was a dream for the Oregon Ducks. They trailed the hated Washington Huskies by 14 points but came back to win that game with a strong fourth-quarter rally. Oregon trailed Washington State late but rallied to win. The Ducks’ offense was outplayed by California’s defense, but Oregon shut down the Golden Bears to win anyway. Oregon had an answer for nearly all the teams on its Pac-12 schedule, and when the Ducks faced Utah in their first Pac-12 Championship Game appearance since 2014, UO was ready. Coach Mario Cristobal’s team decisively beat Utah to win its first Pac-12 title in five years. Now Oregon will try to bring everyone back for another run at the conference crown in a shortened pandemic season.

Offseason Changes

There are lots of changes for the Ducks to deal with. They already knew in the summer that they would not have quarterback Justin Herbert – the No. 6 NFL draft pick taken by the Los Angeles Chargers – or several other NFL-caliber players: Troy Dye, Shane Lemieux, Calvin Throckmorton, and Jake Hanson. They did not know in the summer, however, that they would be without offensive lineman Penei Sewell, and defensive backs Jevon Holland and Thomas Graham, plus Brady Breeze, one of the Ducks’ stars in their Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin. Those four players – Sewell, Holland, Graham, and Breeze – have all opted out of the 2020 season due to fears about COVID-19.

Of all the players Oregon will lose, Sewell is the biggest loss by far. He is considered by many the best offensive lineman in college football. Sewell was the one projected starter on an Oregon offensive line in which the other starters were not returnees from 2019. Without Sewell, Oregon’s offensive line is vulnerable in the face of good defensive linemen. Sewell isn’t Oregon’s only personnel loss, but he is by far the biggest one. The Ducks’ offense could easily go through a bad 2020 season.

Joe Moorhead replaces Marcus Arroyo as offensive coordinator.

The Ducks Will Succeed If…

New quarterback Tyler Shough works well with Joe Moorhead. Shough will try to fill Justin Herbert’s shoes. He will probably need some time to settle into his position and find a comfort zone. If that get-acquainted period isn’t especially bumpy or costly, Oregon should be able to find its groove midway through this seven-game season and finish the job, all the way through the Pac-12 Championship Game. If Shough gets along well with Moorhead, who used to be Mississippi State’s head coach and – before that – the offensive coordinator for Penn State, Oregon could get a new quarterback-coordinator pairing which would assure that the Ducks won’t lose much momentum from their 2019 conference championship season.   

The Ducks Will Fail If…

Their offensive line falls apart. Penei Sewell was supposed to be the one guy who held the young and inexperienced offensive line together. Since he has opted out of the season over COVID-19 concerns, Oregon’s offensive line looks a lot weaker. The Ducks don’t have to be spectacular on their offensive line, but they do have to avoid a collapse.

Prediction

The Ducks will get enough good line play to win the Pac-12 North. California doesn’t have enough offense to overtake Oregon. The same is true for Washington. Oregon is the most balanced team in the Pac-12 North, in addition to being the most talented. The Ducks have an easier path to a Pac-12 title than their competitors do.

Prediction: 1st in Pac-12 North; Pac-12 Champions