2020 Team Preview: Will Baylor Hold Off Kansas?

It was one of the best battles of the 2020 college basketball season: Baylor and Kansas traded haymakers in the Big 12 Conference, but Kansas – which had failed to win the Big 12 in 2019, for the first time since 2004 – won back its conference championship. Can Baylor top the Jayhawks this season? Doing so would probably give the Bears a No. 1 seed, the same No. 1 seed they would have had last year if the 2020 NCAA Tournament had been played.

Offseason Changes

The Bears must deal with three losses. Freddie Gillespie and Devonte Bandoo were core rotation players – not superstars, but still highly valuable pieces who played great defense and gave Baylor lots of toughness. They were both seniors, so their eligibility is used up. The third loss came more recently, due to injury. Forward Tristan Clark, a long and active rim protector for coach Scott Drew, retired from basketball because his body was worn down and no longer in playing shape. He was viewed as the paint defender who would enable Baylor to thrive near the basket. With him out, other players have to fill the gap.

The Bears Will Succeed If…

Their younger big men are able to sufficiently replace Tristan Clark. Flo Thamba, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Zach Loveday, and Dain Dainja are all options for Scott Drew, with Dainja and Loveday being freshmen. Baylor will need contributions from all of these players, since the Bears’ foremost strength is a team approach in which no superstar exists. Given that freshmen form half of this quartet, it’s clear that young players will be thrown into the fire this season. Clark’s absence means freshmen such as Loveday and Dainja will be asked to learn quickly. If that learning process isn’t overwhelming for the new guys on this roster, Baylor could still put all the pieces of the puzzle together and beat out Kansas in the Big 12.

The Bears Will Fail If…

Their best players aren’t able to handle the defensive pressure which will be thrown at them. Not having Tristan Clark plus the graduating seniors could throw a curveball to guards Jared Butler and MaCio Teague, who are on the short list for preseason national player of the year (Naismith Award) honors. With younger frontcourt players on the court, Butler and Teague will have to make their fair share of adjustments. They will have to learn how to blend in with the new faces on the roster. They also know that other teams will sag off Baylor’s frontcourt freshmen and force them to make plays. If Butler and Teague struggle against double-teams and traps, this season could fall well below expectations.

Prediction

The Butler-Teague guard combination figures to be good enough and adaptive enough to adjust to the roster changes, specifically Tristan Clark’s absence. Clark’s departure probably is enough to put Baylor behind Kansas in the Big 12, but Baylor should be a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament with a great chance to make the Final Four anyway. This team is too good on defense to fall out of the national picture this season. Baylor will remain a force.

Prediction: 2nd in Big 12