WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL WEEK 16

BY ADAM GREENE

There’s plenty to talk about this week, but quarterbacks should be on everyone’s mind.

QUARTERBACK CONTRACTS WILL CHANGE

One of my favorite jokes about the 2015 Draft Class is, and I’m paraphrasing because I didn’t originally make it and have no idea who did, the answer to the question of Jameis Winston vs Marcus Mariota was, “no.”

You could make the exact same joke now about the 2016 QB class. No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff and No. 2 Carson Wentz both currently stand at a crossroads of their careers and neither look exactly ready to pick the correct road.

For Wentz, the wheels have been coming off all year and he was benched a few weeks ago for 2020 second round pick Jalen Hurts. Goff’s decline has been more gradual, but in the latter half of the season too big a drop to ignore. Neither man seems to have lost any physical ability. What they’ve lost is the mental toughness and decision making required to be a franchise quarterback.

But both guys, thanks to re-upping their contracts early, are being paid like one. And that could keep their teams from parting ways with them, regardless of how much they’d want to. And, trust me, I believe both the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles would love to send these guys packing.

What’s frustrating is that it didn’t have to be this way. Both Goff and Wentz are both in their fifth seasons. Each of their respective teams had their rights through now, by virtue of their draft position, and neither guy if still playing on that rookie contract would be under paid. And, in fact, everybody involved would be prepared for a healthy divorce after the season barring some miraculous Goff run through the playoffs.

As much as people have criticized the Chicago Bears for taking Mitchell Trubisky, they have let it play out exactly right. They didn’t pay the kid until he proved he was worth it. And, even in Goff and Wentz’s case, taking a team to the Super Bowl doesn’t mean you were worth it. Winning probably would. Or at least would buy you some good will.

Of course Goff didn’t, losing his 13-3 to the New England Patriots in a complete meltdown and Wentz watched his back up, Nick Foles, hoist not only the Vince Lombardi Trophy but the game’s MVP award as well.

This isn’t to denigrate Goff or Wentz. Some guys, regardless of their talent, just don’t have it. Or, if they do, they can lose it. For Goff, his problems seem to all be in his head. He’s lost confidence in what he’s seeing and in his throws. He holds onto the ball too long and is prone to stupid mistakes.

Wentz, on the other hand, tries to do too much. He’s attempting to Superman his team down the field in every possession instead of running the offense. I don’t know how you can fix these problems. I don’t know if any QB ever has. When a guy starts down these roads, it’s usually where he ends up crashing and burning.

Cutting Goff or Wentz in the offseason is out of the question. The only way it could happen is if the NFL eliminated the salary cap next season or boosted it far beyond the amount it would have been even if COVID-19 hadn’t affected the math. Jettisoning Wentz would be a $59.2 million dead cap hit for Philly. Goff would cost the Rams $65.5 million. There’s some math out there that makes trades more feasible under the salary cap, but they’d have to find a team willing to take these contracts with these particular players. Who in the hell would do that?

There is also some cap trickery that can spread those numbers out if they were to be cut at a designated time. But these are still monster numbers.

When you look at all the first round QBs taken from 2015-2017, two (Winston and Mariota) are no longer with the team that drafted them. The two from 2016 (Goff and Wentz) would both be shot out the airlock if not for their contracts.

The 2017 guys, well, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are superstars, but Trubisky’s future is unknown. Though the Bears might opt to keep him on a one-year deal after his recent performances.

The jury is still out on the guys drafted from 2018-2020 but one thing is for sure; if they do not prove that they are legitimate stars like Watson and Mahomes, they aren’t getting a new deal through that first five years. In fact, my guess is most teams will handle these middling quarterbacks the way Chicago has Trubisky. They’ll let him play out his deal, pick up his fifth year option (maybe – the Bears didn’t) and if he plays himself into keeping his job, they offering him a reasonable contract, franchise him, or let him walk and try again.

Of all the criticism leveled at Jerry Jones this season, and there should be plenty, making Dak Prescott play on a franchise tag might be one of the smartest moves he could have made. He knows now that Prescott is a star, like Mahomes and Watson. He’ll earn that contract where Goff and Wentz didn’t.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

We have plenty of intrigue heading into the final week of the season. Here’s how it looks right now.

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)

2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3)

4. Tennessee Titans (10-5)

5. Miami Dolphins (10-5)

6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

7. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

Only one other AFC team could cut in here and it’s the Indianapolis Colts (10-5). And here’s what’s interesting. The Colts don’t control their own destiny, but as long as they win they have a chance to either sneak in as a Wild Card or even be the AFC South Champion.

If the Browns, Ravens and Dolphins all win, they’re in.

The Chiefs have locked in the top seed and the Steelers and Bills have secured home field playoff games. None of these teams are playing for anything Sunday.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (12-3)

2. New Orleans Saints (11-4)

3. Seattle Seahawks (11-4)

4. Washington Football Team (6-9)

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)

6. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

7. Chicago Bears (8-7)

Home field and the top seed is still up for grabs, so the Pack need to win to make sure they hold it. The Arizona Cardinals (8-7) get into the playoffs with a win over the Rams or a Bears loss to the Pack. Chicago losing would automatically put Los Angeles in as well regardless of the outcome of their game. If Chicago wins and Arizona beats LA, then the Rams would be eliminated.

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