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My Super Bowl pick has been up since Monday, but in case you missed it you can click here and be regaled by the reasons why I think the Kansas City Chiefs will not only win Super Bowl LV, but also cover.
But, as you well know, there’s more that we can bet on outside the game itself. As such, I have compiled some of my favorite prop bets and picks for which to help you and me rake in as much cash as possible while we down buffalo wings, put dip to chip and socially distance from anyone rooting for a different team than we are.
Patrick Mahomes is the odds on favorite to be named Super Bowl LV MVP for good reason. He was the Most Valuable Player last year and, for the most part, the MVP voters usually reward the quarterback. The vig isn’t bad, at -110, but it is the only payoff in negative numbers. If you do feel that the Tampa Buccaneers will win, and there’s plenty of reasons to think so, then Tom Brady should be your pick at +225. But me? I’m going Patrick Mahomes at -110.
You can buy yourself a little insurance with another prop as QB is a -375 favorite in the Super Bowl Winning Position prop. With Brady and Mahomes going at it, how is another guy from another position slipping in here?
SARAH THOMAS FIRST MENTIONED IN BROADCAST
History was made when Sarah Thomas was named to the Super Bowl LV officiating crew. She’s the first woman to call the big game and there is no way Jim Nantz isn’t bringing it up early. The first half doesn’t pay well and the second half is at +300, but that is just throwing your money away. Take the First Half at -500 and the guaranteed payout.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL GISELE BUNDCHEN BE SHOWN?
This one is intriguing because it will all come down to one of three factors; a Bucs win, a close game or a Chiefs win.
If Tampa Bay wins, you got to like the over just because showing a family celebrating a victory is something they love to do at the Super Bowl. If it’s close, they’ll show Gisele and Brady’s brood chomping their fingernails as it comes down to the wire, so that’ll mean you take the over too. If the Chiefs win by a couple of scores, you’re not seeing the supermodel more than once. And since I picked the Chiefs to win by eight, I say take Gisele being shown under 1.5 at +170.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL “PATRIOTS” BE SAID?
For whatever reason, BetOnline has given you, the bettor, a license to print money. The over/under here is two times. TWO. Tom Brady played in nine Super Bowls with the New England Patriots and won six of them. I think it’s going to be brought up more than twice. Bet Over 2 Times at -130 and go ahead and pick out whatever you want to buy with your winnings.
And speaking of easy bets…
HOW MANY TIMES WILL BILL BELICHICK BE SAID?
I hope you are sitting down, because the over/under on this prop is ONE. That’s right, if Jim Nantz or Tony Romo mentions Bill Belichick more than once in the entire Super Bowl broadcast, you will make money on this bet. I mean, come on. Sure, the juice is low, but bet Over 1 Time at -350 and collect your cash.
COIN FLIP
Now we’re getting into the really fun bets because you are literally trying to beat fate with this one. But you know what? It doesn’t mean there aren’t analytics. We can Pro Football Focus this thing, by God, because that’s what we do. We have played 54 Super Bowls to this point. So let’s crunch the data.
TAILS has come up 29 times, which means HEADS has claimed victory on 25 separate occasions. HEADS put together the longest win streak on record, five consecutive coin flips. TAILS has won four straight in its day, but it’s done it on three separate streaks.
In all of Super Bowl history, 25 teams that won the coin toss won the game. That means that 29, of course, lost it. So a win doesn’t necessarily bode well. In fact, the team that’s won the toss is currently riding a six game losing streak if you need to add that to your obsessive compulsive gambling book. The last team to win the toss and the game was the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks.
Last year the San Francisco 49ers won the toss by picking TAILS. The year before that, the Los Angeles Rams won it when the New England Patriots picked HEADS. TAILS has won the toss in six of the last seven Super Bowls.
The Chiefs are the AWAY team this year and will make the call.
So what does that mean? It means I’m picking TAILS at -105 and going with the hot hand.
LIQUID COLOR
It’s become a common winning tradition to douse the victorious coach in Gatorade or water, so it might shock you that three times since 2001, no one had a bucket emptied over their heads. In 2004-05, 2013-14 and 2017-18, not a single container of sports drink was poured atop the winning field general’s noggin. The fact that two of those were Bill Belichick might be a coincidence, but probably not. It’s more likely that the games were close and there was no time to celebrate like that with a last second victory.
The Kansas City Chiefs, of course, won last season handily and Andy Reid got to enjoy a lovingly delivered ORANGE Gatorade bath.
While football players, coaches and teams aren’t cowardly, much like Batman villains they are a superstitious lot. There’s no way Kansas City is going to battle with any other flavor Gatorade than ORANGE Sunday. And if you think the Chiefs will win, and I do, then you know what you must do. Bet ORANGE at +110.
There are, of course, plenty more props to choose from so give them a look.
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
Straight up: 1-1
Against the spread: 1-1
PLAYOFFS
Straight up: 7-5
Against the spread: 4-8
SEASON
Straight up: 177-90-1
Against the spread: 135-133
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