College Football Betting: Projecting The College Football Playoff

The college football season is about to start. It’s time to project the College Football Playoff field, with the big question being as follows: Will a surprise team bust up the elite heavyweight programs and their hold on the sport? One particular point of intrigue this year is that two teams could take a giant step toward the playoff in Week 1, before Labor Day. That doesn’t happen every year, but it will happen in 2021.

Alabama

After last season’s national championship, Alabama rightly begins 2021 as a favorite to make the playoff and win the national title. The key point about Bama’s 2020 season is that the Crimson Tide lost Tua Tagovailoa and several other high-profile players… and did not suffer. They plugged new players into various positions and had an even better offense than they did the year before. Mac Jones at quarterback and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith at wide receiver were spectacular. It translated to a championship. This year, that “plug and play” identity will remain intact for Bama. Jones is out, but Bryce Young expects to have a big year as his replacement. Smith is gone, as is Jaylen Waddle, but Bama has elite receivers ready for their turn to shine. This is how it works: Every year, one group of stars gets the lion’s share of touches while the backups learn how to do their job and see, up close, how the stars perform. The next year, the backups are ready to become legitimate stars. The machine rolls on. Alabama has proved that roster churn is not an impediment to success on an annual basis. Nick Saban reminded everyone last year he knows how to keep the train chugging along.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes might be the weakest of the four teams, but they are still the class of the Big Ten. Michigan is weak, Penn State is not at its best and must visit the Buckeyes this year. Wisconsin’s offense has a lot to prove this season. Ohio State might lose twice and still be in line for the playoff as long as it wins the Big Ten championship. If Ohio State beats Oregon in Week 2, it will take a huge step toward the playoff. That is likely to be a high-value win for the Buckeyes. If they go 12-1, they’re a lock for the playoff, but 11-2 might still be enough.

Clemson

Clemson is in a position where it might wrap up a playoff bid in Week 1. The Tigers play Georgia in what is easily the biggest Week 1 game of this season, and which might be the biggest Week 1 game in several years. If Clemson beats Georgia, the Tigers will already have one foot in the door for the playoff, because that kind of win will be as good a nonconference win as any in the country. Clemson replaces Trevor Lawrence at quarterback with D.J. Uiagalelei, who crucially got big-game experience last year at Notre Dame. That taste of the spotlight could make the difference against Georgia.

Let’s briefly discuss Georgia. If the Bulldogs knock off Clemson, they immediately become a threat to Ohio State while complicating the playoff picture. First, Georgia – if it beats Clemson – sets up the possibility that even if it loses the SEC Championship Game to Alabama, it can still get in with an 11-2 record. The Clemson win will have a lot of value. Ohio State is still likely to be an 11-2 playoff team as long as Clemson beats Georgia and the Bulldogs go 0-2 against Clemson and Alabama this year.

The other thing about a Georgia win over Clemson: Clemson would have to go unbeaten in the remainder of the season to make the playoff. Clemson does not play North Carolina or Miami in the regular season. The Tigers’ ACC schedule is soft. A loss to Georgia means that if Clemson loses a second game after that, the Tigers will miss the playoff. Georgia would vault past them even if the Dawgs don’t win the SEC title.

Oklahoma

The Sooners are the clear Big 12 favorite. They have the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, Spencer Rattler. Their offensive line is viewed as strong. Their pass rush is as good as it has been in several years after some weak defensive teams sabotaged their national title plans. Oklahoma has never made the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. The Sooners are 0-4 in playoff semifinal games, losing in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Many people think this is the year OU needs to win a semifinal.