College Football Preview – UCF Knights vs. Boise State Broncos

Two of the most prominent mid-major programs in the country will face off on Thursday night when the UCF Knights host the Boise State Broncos. Boise State was the original mid-major darling with three Fiesta Bowl wins over Power Five foes between 2006 and 2014. The Broncos nearly played for the national championship in 2010, but they have been supplanted by the Knights over the last four years.

UCF won a share of the national championship in 2017 after beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl to cap off a 13-0 season. The Knights were unbeaten in the regular season the following year before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, and they secured their third straight 10-win season in 2019. They are out to prove they are still a force to be reckoned with under new head coach Gus Malzahn.

This game between the UCF Knights and the Boise State Broncos will take place on Thursday, September 2, 2021, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

College Football Betting Odds

Boise State +5.5

UCF -5.5

Total 68.5

Andy Avalos is the new head man at Boise State. One of the greatest defenders in program history has spent the last nine years as a defensive assistant or coordinator for Boise State and Oregon, so he was a natural fit to replace Bryan Harsin when Harsin left for Auburn. This will be Avalos’ first game as a head coach, and he would love to pick up a signature win in his debut.

Gus Malzahn has succeeded at every level. The decorated high school coach led Arkansas State to a 9-3 record in his first season as a collegiate head coach, paving the way for a move to Auburn. Malzahn led the Tigers to a BCS Championship Game appearance in his first season in 2013, and Auburn had eight straight winning seasons with him on the sidelines before he was fired after going 6-4 in 2020.

When UCF Has the Ball

The Knights have consistency under center with Dillon Gabriel entering his third season as the starting quarterback. Gabriel isn’t super accurate, but he doesn’t make mistakes with the ball and has been exceptional in his first two seasons. He hasn’t completed more than 60% of his passes in either year, but he has thrown for at least 3,500 yards in each season and has 61 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions since stepping on campus.

There isn’t a proven runner to carry the load since the three top running backs from 2020 have left the program. Two of the three leading receivers from last year are gone too, so Gabriel will have to work with a lot of new skill position players. Fortunately, all five starters along the offensive line return including First Team All-ACC linemen Cole Schneider and Matthew Lee.

Boise State has eight returning starters on defense. The front seven is stacked with talents like Shane Irwin and Riley Whimpey, but the secondary is a concern. There is no one to feel confident in aside from Kekaula Kaniho, so Gabriel could pick apart these defensive backs.

When Boise State Has the Ball

Injuries really hampered the Broncos in 2020, but they are healthy coming into the 2021 campaign. That bodes well for their chances to win the MWC this year, as this team has the best QB-RB-WR1 combination in the conference.

Hank Bachmeier has been very good under center since starting as a true freshman. He completed 61.5% of his passes for 1,150 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in 2020, and he is ready for a massive season with Khalil Shakir as his primary receiver. Shakir was a First Team All-MWC selection in 2020 and could be an All-American in 2021.

A healthy George Holani will mean a lot to this ground game. Other running backs weren’t as effective as Holani in 2020, leading to Shakir being the second-leading rusher on the Broncos. Holani should be a 1,000-yard back this year if he stays on the field.

UCF has a decent front seven, but the defensive backs are a worry after three were selected in the 2021 NFL Draft. No one is really sure what this position group will look like, but it seems to be the weak link of the defense.

Prediction

The over has a good chance of cashing since both quarterbacks are solid and both secondaries have question marks. As for a side, Boise State is the play as the Broncos might be a little more talented than the Knights on offense.

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