Well, I’ve got bad news everybody. With the New York Giants falling to 0-2 in their Thursday Night Football Game loss to the Washington Football Team, they now, statistically, have just an 11 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Yes, Giants fans, I hope you were sitting down when you read that. Your team, one of the worst in the sport, is even less likely to make the postseason than they were before the game. I don’t have a percentage on that, but I’m gonna say it was like 12 or something. Maybe 13-ish. Yeah. That feels right.
Washington, on the other hand, looks like they’ve found a quarterback. Not only did Taylor Heinicke statistically play well, finishing 34 of 46 for 336 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, he bounced back from that late pick, an interception that should have cost his team the game, and instead drove them down the field in the final minute for the game winning field goal. It’s the kind of moment where a career is officially started.
And considering that Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn’t come back before November from injured reserve even if he wanted to, Heinicke’s got plenty of games to continue to build his case to keep the job.
TNF was a good game. A fun game. Daniel Jones showed up pretty well, throwing for 249 yards and a touchdown and still leading his team in rushing with 95 yards and a score. Maybe New York needs to just lean into the Lamar Jackson style gameplan at this point. They couldn’t be any worse.
As for me, I once again picked the winner, but missed on the spread. I am now 0-2 ATS on Thursday contests in 2021, but lucky for me, I’ve got a full slate of games on Sunday to make up for it.
Let’s pick them.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3.5, O/U: 45)
So here we have it. If all goes according to plan with these two teams this will be the beginning of a decades worth of Jameis Winston vs Sam Darnld quarterback duels and just typing that out makes me want to call an exorcist for my keyboard. I don’t trust what I saw with Carolina last week. I very much believe what I saw with New Orleans. Saints 31, Panthers 16
HOUSTON TEXANS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-13, O/U: 48)
Oh, the Cleveland Browns found a way to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in the most Cleveland Browniest way possible. It’s time to take it out on somebody in front of their home fans. Houston actually looked OK last week, but they were playing the Jaguars, who just might give Urban Meyer a heart attack for real this time. Browns 42, Texans 13
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-1, O/U: 45)
I look at this Bengals team and I see the Arizona Cardinals a year ago. I look at this Bears team, and I see a guy starting at quarterback that should be setting a new Fruit Ninja high score on his Microsoft Surface tablet on the sidelines. I think, before this game is over, the Justin Fields era will officially begin. But just a little too late. Bengals 24, Bears 16
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6, O/U: 47)
The Raiders had the wildest game of Week 1 by a longshot and came out on top. It’s the kind of thing that can propel you to a successful, playoff season. All Pittsburgh did was come out and lay a road knockout to the team that everyone thought, at worst, was the third best in the league in the Buffalo Bills. I’m not feeling this spread, but I do still like the Steelers as Big Ben might just be stealing Aaron Rodgers’ Last Dance for himself. Besides, Pittsburgh has literally been ruining things for the Oakland/Los Angeles/Las Vegas Raiders for the last 50 years. It’s what they do. Steelers 27, Raiders 24
BUFFALO BILLS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3, O/U: 47.5)
As I mentioned above, as a joke at least in regard to the Giants, starting the season 0-2 gives you a statistically an 11 percent chance to make the playoffs. I like Miami and think they’ll be playing in January. But there’s no way Buffalo is losing two in a row in September. Bills 31, Dolphins 21
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3.5, O/U: 48.5)
How in the world did HBO and NFL Films talk the Colts into doing some ridiculous in-season version of Hard Knocks. Did Jim Irsay get busted drunk driving again? No team wants to be on the regular preseason Hard Knocks. How big a distraction will it be to deal with this all season long? For a team thinking they’ll contend for a playoff spot. I’ve never been more convinced they won’t get it now. Rams 37, Colts 19
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3, O/U: 49.5)
Philadelphia looked fantastic against the Atlanta Falcons last week and it meant absolutely nothing because both those teams were garbage last year. The real test is this week, with a 49ers team fielding most of its 2019 Super Bowl roster minus running back Raheem Mostert and poor cornerback Jason Verrett, who seems to get hurt every single season. It’s a damn shame. This is a guy that’s good enough to make the Pro Bowl every year and he’s never played a full season since he was drafted in the first round out of TCU in 2014 by the then San Diego Chargers. Last year he made it through 13 games. His second year in the league, he made it through 13 games. In every other season he’s never played more than six and in three, including this year, he’s only been healthy for one. I still like the Niners on the road. 49ers 27, Eagles 17
DENVER BRONCOS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+6, O/U: 45)
That’s a mighty generous line for a team that got blown out by the Texans a week ago. The seeming dysfunction rumors that keep flying out of the Jags’ facility like they’re filming episodes of Real Housewives of Jacksonville aren’t helping. Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure Von Miller is going to take home a lock of Trevor Lawrence’s hair by the game’s end. Let’s just all hope it’s from his head. Broncos 24, Jaguars 13
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT NEW YORK JETS (+6, O/U: 43)
Robert Saleh is a good coach and a hire I like a lot for the Jets. His problem in this game is he’s playing with old west saloon doors as an offensive line and he never worked for Bill Belichick. This is as good a lock as we’ll get this week. Patriots 27, Jets 10
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3.5, O/U: 51)
Arizona has a very scary Rams 2017 vibe going on this year and that could mean good things in the regular season, but probably an early exit from playoffs. Fortunately for Minnesota, they won’t have to worry about any Wild Card game defeat as they’ll be watching at home from their Corrigan Studio Lesa Square Arm Sofas, which I’ve heard are high quality and very comfortable. Cardinals 41, Vikings 23
ATLANTA FALCONS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-12.5, O/U: 52)
This is our second double digit spread of the week and the only one that makes me nervous. The back end of Tampa’s defense was exposed last week by the Dallas Cowboys like it just took the stage at Mons Venus to Van Halen’s “Hot for Teacher.” I don’t think Atlanta can win this game, as I’m pretty sure Tom Brady still has legal paternity over Matt Ryan, but I don’t like the points. Bucs 29, Falcons 21
TENNESSEE TITANS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, O/U: 54)
Again, we’re looking at a playoff team staring hard at 0-2 in the Titans after being pantsed on live television by the Cards last week. The good news is, Seattle had one of the worst pass defenses in the league in 2020 and did very little to upgrade it this year. Also, I find it impossible to believe that Derrick Henry will be held under 100 yards for a third consecutive game (going back to last year’s playoff loss to the Ravens). I like Tennessee in a shootout. Titans 34, Seahawks 31
DALLAS COWBOYS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3.5, O/U: 55)
What could make the Cowboys successful this season is simply the fact that Kellen Moore is calling the offense and, instead of a playcard, they’ve handed Mike McCarthy an IHOP menu. I’m legit surprised at this spread as this kind of feels like a pick-em type game for me. I think LA’s head coach Brandon Staley will get the job done, but this one could be just as wild as Dallas’ opener against the Bucs. Chargers 33, Cowboys 30
Last week
Straight up: 10-6
Against the spread: 9-7
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