2021 SEC Preview

The Southeastern Conference is not exactly free of drama entering 2021, but it is also not as uncertain a place as it was entering 2020. Last season was a restoration season for the league and for its superpower. In the midst of the pandemic and all of its complications, Alabama quieted its doubters and reminded everyone it was still the king. Now we’ll see if Alabama can go back to back and reaffirm its place atop college football, or if we are going to see a shakeup in America’s toughest college football conference. The burden of proof lies with certain teams more than others in this conference.

What Happened Last Year

In 2019, LSU and Joe Burrow stopped Nick Saban and Alabama, scoring a shootout win in Tucscloosa and making Alabama’s defense look badly outclassed. It was easy to think, in that moment, when LSU walked off Alabama’s field in triumph, if something bigger was about to change in the SEC. Nick Saban teams just didn’t get embarrassed at home. That is practically unheard of in the past 12 years of SEC football.

The facts spoke for themselves: Alabama made the College Football Playoff in five consecutive years from 2014 through 2018. In 2019, LSU halted that streak. Alabama faced the challenge of having to start all over again and rededicate itself to the fundamentals of winning football. Brick by brick, it built itself back into a juggernaut. Quarterback Mac Jones was able to make the offense hum. He played very clearheaded and smart football. He didn’t try to be the hero who made daring, low-percentage throws. He didn’t try to be spectacular. He made the simple play and allowed his teammates to take care of the rest. Running back Najee Harris was an excellent complementary piece to the offense, a guy who was able to bull-rush the ball between the tackles and thrive when coming out of the backfield to catch passes in the short flats and lend variety to the offense. Alabama was able to show different looks at opposing defenses. It was able to use Harris as a Swiss Army knife and exploit defenses in the flat, but it was also able to go to receivers DeVonta Smith and (before his midseason injury) Jaylen Waddle to hit defenses with vertical strikes. Alabama was able to attack defenses from a full range of angles, overwhelming opposing linebackers and safeties with an overabundance of choices. If they committed to stopping Harris on a short pass, that might have left them vulnerable to a wide receiver filling in a space behind the linebacker for a 20-yard gain. If a safety tried to cover the middle of the field in front of him, Smith or Waddle might get open on a post or a flag route for a home-run ball behind the back line of defense. Alabama simply swarmed defenses with numbers, unleashing its speed and versatility on its opponents. Alabama scored an average of 48.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide scored 52 points against Florida to win the SEC Championship Game.

Florida deserves credit for getting to the SEC title game. The Gators lost to rival Georgia in 2017, 2018 and 2019, and since Florida-Georgia regularly decides who wins the SEC East Division championship, those three losses to Georgia were very costly for Florida. They locked the Gators out of the SEC title game. In 2020, that changed. Florida was able to solve Georgia’s defense, putting 38 on the Dawgs in the first half and coasting home for a comfortable 44-28 victory. Coach Dan Mullen had finally figured out his nemesis, beating UGA head coach Kirby Smart for the first time as the head coach of the Gators.

Florida scored 46 points against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. That would have beaten most teams, but Alabama isn’t “most teams.” The Tide won 52-46 and then crushed both Notre Dame and Ohio State to win the national championship. Alabama won a third national title in the past six seasons. Alabama played in the national championship game for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The dynasty in Tuscaloosa is alive and well. Nick Saban continues to make the impossible look very ordinary and routine for the Crimson Tide.

Team Most Likely To Exceed Expectations

The 2021 SEC team most likely to exceed expectations is Missouri. The Tigers are just not discussed very much, compared to other SEC programs which are expected to attain greater heights and become more formidable. Kentucky won the Citrus Bowl, a New Year’s Day bowl game, a few seasons ago. The Tennessee Volunteers won the 1998 national championship and have a proud football tradition. They are viewed by their own fan base as a program which should be playing for championships every year. Missouri doesn’t get as much publicity or buzz as Kentucky and Tennessee normally receive, but the Tigers could be in a position to rise above the Wildcats and the Volunteers in 2021.

The Tigers had a solid offense last season. They competed a lot better in the SEC than many experts and pundits predicted. Coach Eli Drinkwitz found solutions for the UM offense after coming over from Appalachian State, where he won the Sun Belt Conference championship. Missouri faced a very tough schedule last season, but the Tigers held their own and earned respect from a lot of people inside and beyond the conference. A 45-41 upset win over defending national champion LSU sent an early-season message that Missouri was not going to be anyone’s doormat. Missouri was able to build on that win and score several other victories over the course of the SEC season. Heavyweight teams Georgia, Florida, and Alabama proved to be too much for Mizzou, but the Tigers played well against the rest of the SEC, going 5-2 in their other seven games. The end product was a 5-5 record, and that is the kind of overachievement we might see this season. Missouri might be expected to finish below Kentucky, but the Tigers’ offense might enable them to win a chess match against the Wildcats and ultimately finish above Kentucky in the standings. Missouri won’t win the SEC East Division – which it managed to do in both the 2013 and 2014 SEC seasons – but the Tigers could very realistically snag third place in the division, which would be a terrific accomplishment under the circumstances when viewed in a much wider and fuller context.

Team Most Likely To Fall Short Of Expectations

Florida might come down to earth this year – not just losing one more game than it did last year, but maybe losing two more games than it did in 2020. Kyle Pitts was a remarkable tight end for the Gators. He cleared up so much real estate and expanded the field for other Gator receivers. He often drew double-teams from opposing defenses, which gave his quarterback, Kyle Trask, a chance to survey the field and find one-on-one matchups in other areas of the field. Trask made clear forward strides as a quarterback last season – he made a number of reads and throws he was not yet ready to make the previous year, in 2019 – but while Florida coach Dan Mullen helped Trask improve, the number one reason for the quarterback’s growth is that he had an all-time-great tight end on his roster, changing the geometry of the field in every game he played. Not having Kyle Pitts in a Gator uniform this season could dramatically hurt the Florida offense. Mullen and the rest of the offensive coaching staff might run into the realization that Pitts created possibilities for the offense no one else is capable of doing. If Pitts really is this central to the evolution of Florida’s 2020 offense, his absence in 2021 could lead to a big regression – not merely a slight one – for the rest of the Gators’ offense. That is a possibility which has to be considered and contemplated.

Emory Jones replaces Kyle Trask as Florida’s new quarterback this coming year. He is a good runner, but he is nowhere near the passer Trask was. Florida is highly likely to lag well behind the 2020 offense in terms of making big downfield throws for huge plays. Florida’s offense is going to be much more cut from a ball-control mold this season.

Best Heisman Bet

Some people will say that Georgia quarterback J.T. Daniels has the best chance to win the Heisman from this conference, but he played just half a season last year and needs to show he can be an elite performer over the course of 12 whole games. He needs to stay healthy and show durability, something he was not able to do at his previous school, USC.

Max Johnson is a left-handed quarterback LSU will bring into battle this season. Johnson led LSU to a shocking 37-34 road upset of Florida late last season. If Johnson can lead LSU to a 10-win season in 2021, he could become a Heisman Trophy dark-horse.

Matt Corral is part of an Ole Miss offense which came alive last season under head coach Lane Kiffin. Corral did not do much under previous Ole Miss coach Matt Luke. Kiffin was a breath of fresh air for Corral, who helped Ole Miss score 48 points against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Nick Saban.

Emory Jones is a dual-threat quarterback at Florida who won’t throw for more yards than teammate Kyle Trask did last year, but if Jones can rush for over 1,000 yards and give Florida a diverse and balanced offense which enables the Gators to once again beat Georgia in the SEC East, Jones could make a surprising run to Heisman prominence. Each of these men are realistic Heisman candidates in the SEC… but they aren’t the number one Heisman threat in the league, either.

The best SEC Heisman threat is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. He can throw the ball the way Mac Jones did last year, but he can run the ball in ways Jones was unable to do. Alabama has a loaded offense, and if Young is able to maximize his resources in 2021, he could give Alabama a second straight Heisman winner after receiver DeVonta Smith won the award last year. Alabama players who play well regularly get into the thick of the Heisman discussion. Derrick Henry won the award in 2015. Tua Tagovailoa was a Heisman runner-up. Smith and Jones were both top-five finishers last year. Bryce Young is the SEC’s best hope to win the award in 2021.

Coach On The Hot Seat

South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Auburn all fired their coaches this past offseason.

Nick Saban of Alabama, Kirby Smart of Georgia, Dan Mullen of Florida, Jimbo Fisher of Texas A&M, Ed Orgeron of LSU, Sam Pittman of Arkansas, Mark Stoops of Kentucky, and Eli Drinkwitz of Missouri are all doing good jobs or have done really good jobs in the past two years. Lane Kiffin is showing promise at Ole Miss. Even with a bad 2021, he will certainly get another chance to coach the Rebels in 2022. Mike Leach of Mississippi State will probably get 2022 as well, but if his 2021 season is a complete disaster, he is the coach most likely to be fired first in the SEC. Don’t expect a coach to be fired, but Leach is – compared to all other coaches – in the most vulnerable position.

Team With The Best Shot To Win It All

It’s Alabama. A team which is defending national champion and which has played in five of the past six national championship games is the clear gold standard in the sport. Only Clemson and Ohio State come somewhat close to the standard Alabama has established in recent years. Nick Saban showed in 2020 that he still knows how to get the job done, including and especially when he has a large degree of roster turnover from the previous s