College Football Preview – Houston Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs

No one is paying attention to the 7-0 SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs are unbeaten, but they are not receiving nearly the same praise as the No. 2 overall Cincinnati Bearcats. SMU is just barely in the top 20 despite having an unscathed record, but Sonny Dykes and the Mustangs are hoping to change that this week when they face the 6-1 Houston Cougars. The oddsmakers are expecting a close game as this tilt is seen as a pick ‘em per the college football betting odds.

The AAC West Division might be decided on Saturday, October 30, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN 2 when the Houston Cougars host the SMU Mustangs at TDECU Stadium.

College Football Betting Odds

SMU PK

Houston PK

Total 62

SMU is currently unbeaten, but the best win for the Mustangs was against a mediocre TCU team. They struggled to beat Louisiana Tech in Rustin, and they had issues on the road against Navy too. The Mustangs have yet to win a road game by more than one possession this season.

Houston lost its season opener to Texas Tech. The Cougars have won six straight games since that point though, and they are 4-2 ATS over that stretch. However, they needed overtime to knock off East Carolina at home last week.

When SMU Has the Ball

Tanner Mordecai is completing 71.1% of his passes for 8.8 YPA with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions in Dykes’ offense. He has only been sacked twice, and he is making the most of these receivers. Three different SMU players have at least 400 receiving yards.

The ground game has been able to move the ball effectively too. Tre Siggers leads the way with 473 yards and is averaging 4.7 YPC, while Ulysses Bentley IV is averaging 7.4 YPC. Bentley is dealing with an injury that has limited him since the TCU game, but he is expected to play on Saturday.

Houston does a good job stopping the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.1 YPC against the Cougars’ front seven, and they have done a good job getting off the field too as they rank fifth in third down conversion rate. The pass defense has been a bit dodgy though, and Mordecai could light up this secondary.

When Houston Has the Ball

The Cougars haven’t been great on offense. They rank 87^th in the country on this side of the ball, as Houston is averaging just 3.5 YPC. Dana Holgorsen is seen as an offensive guru, yet Clayton Tune has been unable to take the next step as a quarterback.

Tune is completing just under 70% of his passes. He is averaging just 7.4 YPA, but he has cut down on the interceptions that hurt him earlier this season. It’s been more than a year since he threw for more than 300 yards, but he might need to do that for the Cougars to win on Saturday night.

SMU does not have a good pass defense. The Mustangs are allowing 8.6 YPA and 255.3 YPG through the air. That is likely to make this game a shootout.

Prediction

The two sides to back in this game are SMU and the over. SMU has done a great job scoring points and has a quarterback that can take them to 8-0 in Mordecai.

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