4 Reasons Alabama Will Beat Georgia In SEC Championship Game

The college football season is heading toward its climactic final games, the showdowns which will determine who makes the College Football Playoff. Georgia is almost certainly in the playoff no matter what, but will Alabama join the Dawgs in the four-team showcase? If Bama can upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game (Georgia has opened as a four-point favorite), the Tide will accompany the Dawgs to the big show and give the SEC two teams in the playoff. This would replicate the scenario provided in the 2017 season, when the Tide and Dawgs both crashed the party, won their respective semifinals, and then met for the national championship, with Alabama winning in overtime. If Alabama is to make the playoff, how will it wind up beating Georgia? Here are four reasons:

Kirby Smart Has Never Figured Out Nick Saban

The hold Saban has on games in which he coaches against former assistants is substantial. It’s true that former Saban assistant Jimbo Fisher beat him earlier this year when Texas A&M upset Alabama, but Saban has not yet lost a game to Kirby Smart. These coaches know each other really well, and that generally works to Saban’s advantage, since the matchup is not unfamiliar. He has an idea of what to expect. Georgia is not going to surprise Alabama. That’s important for the Crimson Tide, who generally have a more aggressive and ambitious offense. They have more ways to make plays and more ways to win a game. This leads to the next point:

Georgia Has To Lean On Its Defense; Alabama Does Not

The Georgia Bulldogs do have the best defense in the country. No one doubts or disputes that claim. Georgia has not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent this season. The Dawgs have been impenetrable… but it has to be said that they haven’t faced a team like Alabama. They haven’t faced Nick Saban. They haven’t faced Bryce Young, who is a gifted and talented quarterback. If Georgia’s defense is not on top of its game – if the defense has its one bad game of the season against Alabama’s skill-position talent – the Georgia offense is not equipped to win a shootout. Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett lost to Alabama last year. He did not have the ability to throw the ball down the field and hit huge pass plays. Alabama scored too much for Bennett and Georgia to keep pace. If Alabama can solve Georgia’s defense, the Dawgs are cooked.

Georgia Hasn’t Faced A Supreme Offense Yet

The Bulldogs beat a bad Clemson offense in Week 1. No one knew it at the time, but that Clemson offense was worse than anyone could have expected or imagined. Georgia is still waiting to play an opponent with a really good offense, defined as an offense which functions well against elite opposition. Tennessee has a talented offense, but not an elite offense. The Vols were contained by a not-that-good Florida defense. Tennessee did not flourish against elite opposition this season. It fattened up against lower-tier opponents. This lack of a top-level test could hurt Georgia’s ability to adjust. It’s a real concern for the Dawgs heading into Atlanta for this game on Dec. 4.

Saban As The Underdog

The greatest coach in college football history is an underdog who can motivate his team and say it is getting no respect. That’s a very scary prospect and a great reason to ride with the Tide here.