FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 13

BY ADAM GREENE

Our Week 13 started off with exactly what I needed —  a solid win straight up and against the spread for the Dallas Cowboys as they knocked off the New Orleans Saints 27-17.

It was the fifth straight loss for New Orleans who is probably looking at its first losing season since 2016. The bad news for the Saints, in spite of their history with Sean Payton is, they have a habit of stacking losing seasons up. After an 11-5 campaign in 2013, the Saints didn’t post an above .500 record again until 2017. And that was with a future first ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer at quarterback in Drew Brees.

Right now, the Saints don’t really have a QB at all. Taysom Hill who, to be fair, is playing hurt, tossed four interceptions in the game including a pick six that all but sealed the win for the Cowboys.

While New Orleans is looking at an offseason searching for a signal caller, Dallas is all set with Dak Prescott. He finished 26 of 40 for 238 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a game that still didn’t feel quite right for a guy that was in the MVP conversation back in October.

The decision they may have to make, regardless of how far they go in the postseason, is whether to lean into keeping (and paying) both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard at running back, or going with the younger guy who, frankly, seems a little more effective when he’s in the offense.

Regardless, I had a disaster with the picks last week. November was tough on all of us, but it’s December now and I’ve got my fingers crossed that Santa has me on the Good List for Week 13.

Byes: Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DETROIT LIONS (+7, O/U: 47)

At this point reporters showing up to Dan Campbell’s postgame press conferences need to be decked out in ponchos or you have no one else to blame but yourself. And, hey, suede shoes or jackets of any kind are out of the question. The last time Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff faced off, Goff (with the Los Angeles Rams) won 38-31 in one of the greatest games of 2018. The two teams combined for 1,012 yards. Goff passed for 465 and five touchdowns while Cousins finished with 422 and three touchdowns. I feel it’s safe to say this one won’t live up to what that contest three seasons ago delivered. Vikings 28, Lions 16

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+7.5, O/U: 43.5)

The Cardinals have reached a point where you have to pick them to win until they give you a reason not to. Facing a Bears team with a head coach in Matt Nagy barely hanging on for dear life with Andy Dalton probably starting, I have no reason to feel any less confident in what Arizona is building up here. Especially with both quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins slated to return. Cardinals 44, Bears 13

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (+11, O/U: 51)

Tampa is 5-6 against the spread this season thanks to lines like this one. They have not won a single road game this season by double digits and that is worrisome, but Atlanta is exactly the kind of team that can make that particular stat worthless. The Falcons went two weeks without scoring a touchdown before knocking off the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. If I’m rolling the dice, it’ll be on Tom Brady even with Antonio Brown out for three weeks for (checks notes) forging a COVID-19 vaccine card which is a federal crime that could land him in prison for five years. And, honestly, the fact that AB has gone this long outside the slammer is a feat unto itself. Buccaneers 33, Falcons 19

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (+10, O/U: 45)

The Colts have made a habit of surrendering leads this season when they have the secret weapon to keep just that thing from happening — running back Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s current leading rusher. Taylor carried the ball just 16 times last week in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and eight of those were on a single drive late in the game after Indy had already surrendered the lead. There’s just no excuse for that. Of course, whatever they do will work against Houston, which is why a game like this is so meaningless to a team that needs to solve some real strategic issues before the playoffs get out of reach. Colts 37, Texans 16

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK JETS (+6.5, O/U: 45)

Just when I think I’ve finally solved the Eagles mystery, they go and lose a game to the New York Giants. Is it possible they could fall again in the same building, to a team that plays for the same state (or states, as it were, since they’re in New Jersey)? No, because the Jets are garbage, but still. Last week should sting for a while. Eagles 24, Jets 17

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3, O/U: 50.5)

You want a game with playoff implications? This one is full of them. The Chargers currently hold the seventh seed in the AFC and the Bengals have the five. A loss for either team, with wins from the Las Vegas Raiders and/or Denver Broncos could put them back outside the bracket. Or, if the Raiders and Broncos both lose, flip their seeding. It is truly the most wonderful time of the year. Cincinnati is that rare team this season that, after dropping a couple of games before their bye, used it to fix what was wrong with their squad and now they’ve won two straight. I think Sunday, it’ll be three. Bengals 27, Chargers 23

NEW YORK GIANTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4, O/U: 40.5)

Since Miami talked themselves out of trading for Tua Tagovailoa’s replacement, they’ve won four straight and are now hovering right outside the AFC’s playoff bracket. The Giants, in spite of being terrible, are still alive as well. The Dolphins can do New York’s fanbase a real favor Sunday by shutting that down for good. Dolphins 24, Giants 17

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-1, O/U: 49)

Speaking of suddenly relevant NFC East teams, the WFT has won three straight and they’ve all been against legit opponents, including a dominating 29-19 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers three weeks ago. Las Vegas somehow found the gumption to pull off an upset against Dallas on Thanksgiving, but that could have been more of a last gasp death rattle than a change in fortunes. WFT 19, Raiders 16

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-13, O/U: 48.5)

Here’s some not so fun stats for you if you like the Rams (and I do), Matthew Stafford is 9-70 in his career against teams with winning records and has never once defeated an NFL team five games or more over  .500. Luckily for him and LA, the Jaguars are neither of those things. Winning here proves jack for Los Angeles, who needs to find a way to recapture that early season magic, but a loss would be nothing short of a disaster. Rams 38, Jaguars 19

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4.5, O/U: 44)

Baltimore currently holds the top seed in the AFC playoff standings, but what they really have is some kind of charmed idol, the opposite of what Peter Brady found when the Brady Bunch went to Hawaii. They have nothing but good luck because the Ravens are a play away per game from being 3-8 or worse. As for Pittsburgh, you hate to see Ben Roethlisberger’s final year fizzle out, but it looks that way. Of course, back in September we were writing the Steelers epitaph only to see them get back into the mix. I’m rooting for them and Ben both, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Ravens 23, Steelers 20

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+3, O/U: 45.5)

The 49ers have gutted their way back into the NFC playoff bracket, currently holding the sixth seed in the NFC. They’re 4-1 on the road and have won three straight. Seattle took its eighth loss of the season a week ago, all but assuring they’ll post their first losing mark since 2011. Looks bleak, right? Well, consider this. Since 2012, the Seahawks are 16-4 against San Francisco and these 49ers have not won at Luman Field since Christmas Eve, 2011. That is a startling stat and one that I’m rolling with. Seahawks 23, 49ers 21

Last week

Straight up: 6-9

Against the spread: 4-11

Season

Straight up: 106-73-1

Against the spread: 88-92

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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