College Football Preview – Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Big 12 Championship Game won’t feature either Oklahoma or Texas for the first time since 1998. The Baylor Bears will face the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday afternoon with a potential spot in the College Football Playoff on the line for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are ranked No. 5 in the CFP, and a win coupled with an Alabama loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game should put Mike Gundy’s team into the playoff.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will face the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday, December 4, 2021. This game will take place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas with kickoff scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

College Football Betting Odds

Baylor +5.5

Oklahoma State -5.5

Total 46.5

It’s been a surprisingly great year for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys squeaked by their three non-conference foes before going on a tear in the Big 12. They went 8-1 against conference opponents and finally toppled Oklahoma in Bedlam last week.

Baylor’s first loss this season came against Oklahoma State. The Bears lost to the Cowboys by 10 points in Stillwater earlier this year, but they only lost one other game to make the Big 12 Championship Game. They are underdogs to the Cowboys, and they could be even bigger underdogs if Gerry Bohanon is unable to take the field.

When Baylor Has the Ball

Gerry Bohanon suffered a strained hamstring two weeks ago. He was unable to play against Texas Tech last week, and his status is uncertain for Saturday. Bohanon is completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.4 YPA with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he is averaging 4.3 YPC. Blake Shapen will start under center if Bohanon is unable to play.

The Bears have a strong ground game. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have been a fearsome one-two punch with Smith running for 1,366 yards (6.4 YPC) and 12 touchdowns, while Ebner is running for 746 yards (5.4 YPC) and two touchdowns. Bohanon has run for nine touchdowns too, but Baylor had little success on the ground against Oklahoma State in their first meeting.

Oklahoma State ranks fourth in scoring defense (16.5 PPG) and third in total defense (270.8 YPG). The Cowboys have a superb run defense, and they rank fifth in Defensive SP+.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

Spencer Sanders hasn’t improved like quarterbacks usually do under Mike Gundy. Sanders is completing just 60.5% of his passes for 7.5 YPA with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He is a mobile threat though, averaging 4.4 YPC with six touchdowns on the ground.

The two skill position players to watch are wide receiver Tay Martin and running back Jaylen Warren. Martin has 61 receptions for 854 yards and seven touchdowns, and Warren has run for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year.

Baylor is allowing 20.5 PPG and 357.8 YPG. The Bears have done a good job stopping the run, but they are allowing 7.7 YPA. If Sanders can find success through the air, Oklahoma State might cruise in the title game.

Prediction

The Bears stand a good chance to cover if Bohanon plays. Keep an eye on the injury report there, as that could lead to the total coming down even more too.

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