College Football Preview – Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen

As is tradition, the last regular season game of the 2021 college football season will pit the Army Black Knights against the Navy Midshipmen. The pomp and circumstance of this game is second to none, as the two military academies have a unique rivalry. Army has already won the Commander in Chief’s Trophy for the fourth time in the last five years thanks to their win over Air Force coupled with an Air Force win over Navy earlier in the season, but the Black Knights would love to beat the Midshipmen for the fifth time in the last six years. This is expected to be a very low scoring game per the college football betting odds though.

The Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen will meet in the Big Apple for the first time in nearly two decades on Saturday, December 11, 2021, at 3 p.m. ET on CBS.

College Football Betting Odds

Army -7.5

Navy +7.5

Total 35

It was another successful season for Army. The Black Knights went 8-3, and they gave Wisconsin and Wake Forest all they could handle in losses to those teams. They knocked off Western Kentucky early in the season too, but they didn’t play a lot of quality opponents with games against minnows like Massachusetts, Connecticut, and FCS Bucknell.

Navy has had a dreadful year. The Midshipmen have just three wins for the third time in the last four seasons, and that has led to increasing pressure on Ken Niumatalolo although he has a 104-75 record and has taken the program to 11 bowl games. Their best win came against 8-4 UCF, and they did close out the season with a blowout of Temple.

When Army Has the Ball

The Black Knights are going to run the triple option like we have seen all season. Tyrell Robinson has been explosive, averaging 9.9 YPC while leading the team with 582 yards and three touchdowns, but it’s truly a team effort for Army. There are a whopping 11 players with at least 20 carries this year.

We have seen the Black Knights use four different quarterbacks. Christian Anderson is the primary quarterback for Army, and he and Jabari Laws have been successful passers on the rare occasions they are asked to throw the ball. Jemel Jones had some nice moments early in the season, and Tyhier Tyler has run the ball more than any other player.

Navy has had a hard time stopping the pass, allowing 8.7 YPA. The Midshipmen have been fine at stopping the run though, allowing 4.1 YPC. This defense is ranked 90^th in SP+, but that’s much better than their 114^th ranked offense.

When Navy Has the Ball

The Midshipmen have had a hard time running the triple option without a talented quarterback. Navy had another dismal season in 2021, and the lack of solid play at that position doomed them. Tai Lavatai is completing 54.5% of his passes for 6.7 YPA with five touchdowns and two interceptions, but he is averaging 2.1 YPC. Xavier Arline has been a little better runner, but his passing has not been good.

Fullback Carlinos Acie has exploded in recent weeks with 16 carries for 241 yards and two touchdowns in Navy’s last two games. Isaac Ruoss has been the most commonly used fullback though, and he is averaging 3.9 YPC.

Army’s defense has been better than Navy’s defense this season. The Black Knights are allowing 24.1 PPG and 339.1 YPG. They are giving up 3.8 YPC, but they have allowed 8.5 YPA in the secondary. The currently rank 44^th in Defensive SP+.

Prediction

The under is the easiest bet to make considering the last 15 games in this rivalry have gone under the total. As for a side, Navy is a slightly better play than Army thanks to the extra half point, as these teams know each other very well.

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