2021 Quick Lane Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

The MAC has not had good luck in the Quick Lane Bowl. This conference is 0-3 in this bowl game despite it taking place in its geographic footprint. Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Eastern Michigan lost in 2015, 2017, and 2019, but the MAC should be able to pick up its first win in the Motor City on Monday. The Western Michigan Broncos are a touchdown favorite over a Nevada Wolf Pack team that will be without some of its best players.

The 2021 Quick Lane Bowl will take place on Monday, December 27, 2021, at 11 a.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

College Football Betting Odds

Western Michigan -7

Nevada +7

Total 56

Nevada was 5-3 in MWC play, but the Wolf Pack could have easily run the table in the conference. They knocked off conference favorite Boise State in their opener, and all three of their losses were by just two points. Still, it was a successful season for Jay Norvell, and Nevada’s head coach became the new shot caller in Colorado State three weeks ago.

It was an interesting year for Western Michigan. The Broncos went on the road and knocked off ACC champion Pittsburgh in a shootout, and they hammered MAC Championship Game finalists Kent State and Northern Illinois by a combined 54 points. However, they lost four of their five games against MAC West opponents.

When Nevada Has the Ball

If the Wolf Pack had all their starters from the regular season, they would be a sizeable favorite in the Quick Lane Bowl. However, Nevada will be without star quarterback Carson Strong and standout tight end Cole Turner. Strong was the MWC Offensive Player of the Year after completing 70% of his passes for 4,186 yards with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while Turner was a Second Team All-MWC selection.

Interim head coach Vai Taua might call for Nevada to hand the ball off to younger brother Toa Taua often in this game. Vai Taua is a Wolf Pack legend, as he was part of the Nevada team that made history by having three 1,000-yard rushers (Colin Kaepernick and Luke Lippincott were the other two) in the same season. Romeo Doubs is a dangerous receiver too, but 6’9 quarterback Nate Cox is very inexperienced at the FBS level. Cox completed under 52% of his passes at the JUCO level, so this offense is likely to really struggle against Western Michigan.

The Broncos don’t have a great defense, but they are excellent at getting opponents off the field on third down. Teams are converting just 28.7% of their third downs against this defense, helping Western Michigan rank 42^nd in total defense despite allowing 6.0 yards per play. Defensive end Ali Fayad was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year with 11.5 sacks.

When Western Michigan Has the Ball

This offense is going to have some success moving the ball against Nevada. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby was a Second Team All-MAC selection after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards (9.0 YPA) with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions. Skyy Moore was a First Team All-MAC pick and was his favorite target, and Jaylen Hall and Corey Crooms also played big parts in the passing game.

Western Michigan might keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game. The Broncos run the ball on 57.5% of their possessions, ranking 31^st nationally in that category. Sean Tyler was superb and surpassed 1,004 yards (6.1 YPC) with nine TDs, and La’Darius Jefferson ran for 836 yards (4.5 YPC) with 10 scores.

The Wolf Pack have a very good secondary, allowing 6.5 YPA, but the front seven is allowing 4.7 YPC and 179.1 YPG on the ground. Star linebacker Daiyan Henley won’t play in this game either, as Henley is transferring to Washington State. Defensive tackle Tristan Nichols had 10 sacks and was a First Team All-MWC choice.

Prediction

The best play in this game is the under. Western Michigan will be able to keep the chains moving on the ground, while Nevada won’t be nearly as potent on offense without Strong. That’s a better play than either side considering how much this line has moved with the news of all the Nevada players skipping this game.

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