2021 Cheez-It Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

There aren’t expected to be a lot of points scored when the Clemson Tigers face the Iowa State Cyclones in the 2021 Cheez-It Bowl. This game has one of the lowest totals of any game in bowl season, so points should be at a premium. It’s been a disappointing year for Clemson and Iowa State given preseason expectations, but both programs have still overachieved if you consider their historical success.

The 2021 Cheez-It Bowl will feature the Clemson Tigers taking on the Iowa State Cyclones on Wednesday, December 29, 2021, at 5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

College Football Betting Odds

Iowa State +1

Clemson -1

Total 44

Clemson might fail to win at least 10 games for the first time since 2010. The Tigers have been a perennial College Football Playoff contender under Dabo Swinney, but the offense just wasn’t there without Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne this season. They ranked 65^th in Offensive SP+ and only went 9-3 because of their stellar defense.

A lot of publications picked Iowa State to win the Big 12 this season. College Gameday went to Ames for the first time ever for the Cyclones’ Week 2 showdown with Iowa, but Iowa State lost that game and went just 5-4 in Big 12 play. All four of those conference losses were by seven points or less, while four of their five Big 12 wins were by at least 13 points.

When Clemson Has the Ball

Dabo Swinney was hoping that D.J. Uiagalelei would be the next Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence, but he was Clemson’s least impressive quarterback since Tajh Boyd. Uiagalelei was stellar against Notre Dame in 2020, yet he couldn’t seem to figure it out in his first season as a starter. He completed 54.7% of his passes for 2,059 yards with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions.

The Tigers’ receivers weren’t great either, failing to get separation on a consistent basis. That led to Clemson increasingly relying on its ground game, and Will Shipley emerged as the go-to running back. Shipley ran for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in three of his last four games, and he was Clemson’s top running back as a freshman.

Iowa State ranks 26^th in defensive yards per play. The Cyclones do a good job stopping the run, and they have two very good defensive ends in Will McDonald IV and Eyioma Uwazurike. The two combined for 20 sacks on the season. McDonald, Uwazurike, and linebacker Mike Rose were all First Team All-Big 12 selections, and they should put the clamps on this offense.

When Iowa State Has the Ball

Star running back Breece Hall will skip the bowl game to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft. Hall will leave Ames as one of the best running backs in program history, joining Troy Davis and David Montgomery. That will leave Iowa State with a relatively inexperienced running back to go against a very good Clemson front seven.

That will likely lead to the Cyclones throwing the ball more often than usual with Brock Purdy. He completed 73.1% of his passes for 2,984 yards (8.1 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. Wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson and tight end Charlie Kolar were both all-conference selections and are by far the top two targets in the passing game.

Brent Venables has been the best defensive coordinator in college football over the last decade. Clemson has one of the top defenses in the nation once more in 2021, but there are concerns over how the Tigers will fare without him. They do have an intimidating defensive line that has recorded 41 sacks in 12 games though.

Prediction

The under is the best bet in this game although the number is low. This should be a 20-17 type of game that is close the whole way.

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