Baylor Bears vs. Ole Miss Rebels: Betting Guide

It is one of the most interesting matchups of the bowl season: Defensive guru Dave Aranda of Baylor, who was in the rumor mill for the biggest open jobs in the country in the coaching carousel (USC, LSU), will go up against offensive guru Lane Kiffin, who was also heavily mentioned in the coaching carousel. It’s a great chess match in the 2022 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.

• Game: Baylor (11-2) vs. Ole Miss (10-2)
• Location: Superdome (New Orleans)
• Day/Time: Saturday, January 1 – 8:45 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN

The Bears beat Oklahoma State 21-16 to win the Big 12 championship. This was Baylor’s first Big 12 title since 2014. Baylor was able to get multiple turnovers from Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders and turn short fields into touchdowns early in the game. Baylor’s offense didn’t play well, but it did just enough with OSU’s mistakes to win. Baylor then held the line at the end of the game, making a fourth-down stop at the 1-yard line to fend off the Cowboys’ late rally. Baylor played only one especially bad defensive game all season long, a game at TCU in which the Horned Frogs caught the Bears off guard. Other than that, Baylor’s defense under Dave Aranda was brilliant in 2021, smothering the Oklahoma Sooners and containing Oklahoma State twice. Baylor lost to Oklahoma State earlier in the season, but it was because the offense stalled in a 24-14 loss. The defense was a rock of consistency for Aranda, who has clearly proved that he is one of the nation’s very best college football coaches.

Ole Miss won the Egg Bowl rivalry game against Mississippi State, 31-21, prevailing in a rainy game on the road in Starkville. Lane Kiffin is a great offensive coach, but this game was won by the Ole Miss defense, which contained Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense and bottled up Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers. Ole Miss allowed just six points in the first three quarters, enabling the Rebels to gain a 17-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Mississippi State scored 15 points in the fourth quarter to keep the contest competitive, but Ole Miss was able to score as well. The margin built in the first three quarters mattered in the fourth. Ole Miss didn’t have to be perfect in that final quarter; it just had to do enough to win, and it did. Ole Miss won 10 games in the regular season for the first time since 2015. In that year, the Rebels played in the Sugar Bowl as well.

Injury Report

Bowl season means clean injury reports. The Rebels are healthy and will have Matt Corral, their star quarterback, in this game. Corral did not opt out for the NFL draft. He will play this game first and then head to the pros.

Betting on the Game

With Matt Corral playing, Ole Miss has a significant advantage at quarterback. Dave Aranda is a great defensive mastermind, but his team needs to play offense, too. That’s where Baylor is likely to fall short. Take Ole Miss.