2021 Fiesta Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

The Fiesta Bowl has not been kind to Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have been blown out in each of their last four trips to the Fiesta Bowl since beating West Virginia in Tempe to win the 1988 national championship. They lost by 17 points to Colorado, 32 points to Oregon State, and 14 and 16 points to Ohio State. They will look to break that losing streak against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on New Year’s Day.

The 2022 Fiesta Bowl will pit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday, January 1, 2022, from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. This game will kick off at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.

College Football Betting Odds

Oklahoma State +2

Notre Dame -2

Total 45

Notre Dame’s lone loss this season came against undefeated Cincinnati. The Fighting Irish looked like they would struggle this season after winning by a field goal against Florida State and Toledo in their first two games, but they righted the ship as the year went on. After a narrow win over Virginia Tech, they won each of their last six games by at least 10 points.

It was a big year for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys covered nine straight games at one point, and they played in the Big 12 Championship Game. They were favored against Baylor after beating Oklahoma in Bedlam, but a four-interception performance against Spencer Sanders led to the Cowboys being knocked off by the Bears.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

Spencer Sanders will be looking to redeem himself after that poor performance in early December. Sanders has not been great this season, and he has not improved since winning the starting job in 2019. He completed just 61.5% of his passes for 7.3 YPA with 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season. Sanders is the second leading rusher too with 543 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Cowboys are hoping that Jaylen Warren can help Oklahoma State establish the run. Warren has been banged up over the second half of the season, but he is reportedly healthy for the Fiesta Bowl. He has run for 1,134 yards (4.8 YPC) and 11 touchdowns this year, but he only ran for more than 100 yards once in his last six games.

Notre Dame will be without its star safety. Kyle Hamilton has opted out of this game to enter the NFL Draft, but the Fighting Irish rank 13^th in Defensive SP+ this season. They have a good run defense, but there are concerns about how the secondary will fare without Hamilton and potentially starting cornerback Cam Hart.

When Notre Dame Has the Ball

Kyren Williams opted out of this game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Notre Dame will use three running backs in his place, and backup quarterback Tyler Buchner may be seen in more formations since he is the second leading rusher on the Irish and is averaging 7.3 YPC.

This offense didn’t fall back much despite the loss of Ian Book and a lot of offensive linemen. Notre Dame did allow 19 sacks in its first four games, but the offensive line improved from October onwards and Jack Coan was solid as a grad transfer from Wisconsin. Coan completed 67.8% of his passes for 2,641 yards (8.3 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Oklahoma State has one of the best defenses in the nation. The Cowboys rank third in total defense and fifth in rush defense nationally. They had four First Team All-Big 12 selections on defense, including Malcolm Rodriguez who was a First Team All-American according to ESPN.

Prediction

This won’t be a blowout loss for Notre Dame, but Marcus Freeman is stretched a little too thin right now to fully focus on the Fiesta Bowl. That will lead to an Oklahoma State upset in a game that goes over the total.

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