Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats just lost to Auburn this past weekend. They were very competitive and led Auburn for much of the game, but an injury got in the way of their progress. They return home to face a Mississippi State team which needs a high-end win to improve its NCAA Tournament resume. There’s a lot on the line for both teams in this SEC matchup, as January enters its last week and March Madness comes ever closer to the radar screen for college basketball teams across the country.

Game: Mississippi State (13-5) at Kentucky (15-4)

Location: Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY

Day/Time: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET

Television: ESPN

Mississippi State has to find ways to finish games with force and fury

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been a good 35-minute team this season, but not a good 40-minute team. Their 13-5 record isn’t terrible, but they have let some important games slip away down the stretch. They outplayed Colorado State and Florida for much of the proceedings but faltered down the stretch in each game, suffering a key loss which dented their overall resume. Mississippi State didn’t win any particularly big nonconference games. The Bulldogs have to beat the upper tier of the SEC in order to have a good chance of reaching March Madness this year. They did beat Alabama, but Alabama has not turned out to be nearly as good as many people expected. That win alone will not be good enough. MSU has to add Kentucky or Auburn to its list of wins if it wants a good chance of getting into the tournament, making this game exponentially more important for head coach Ben Howland.

Kentucky needs better injury luck and more flexibility from John Calipari

The Kentucky Wildcats have had brutal injury luck this season. Transfer C.J. Fredrick from Iowa was lost for the season very early in the campaign. That robbed Kentucky of an extra shooter it needed to space the floor and create dribble penetration for its guards. In more recent weeks, TyTy Washington has found it hard to stay healthy. He got injured during the LSU loss and then got reinjured during this past weekend’s loss at Auburn. Kentucky started well in those two games with Washington on the floor, then got progressively worse after Washington left the game. Kentucky might have won both games had Washington not been injured. Kentucky, not Auburn, would be leading in the SEC standings right now. It’s unfortunate, but UK needs to make adjustments. Many people think John Calipari needs to give more minutes to top high-school prospect Shaedon Sharpe, who is on the roster but hasn’t been entrusted with a lot of high-leverage minutes. This game against Mississippi State, at home, might be the right time to trust Sharpe. Maybe Calipari wasn’t willing to give Sharpe extended minutes in a difficult road environment at Auburn. Now, he might need to show more faith in his young and raw recruit.

Will Kentucky stabilize and find enough resources to prevail against an inferior team?

This game will probably be close with five minutes left in regulation. Mississippi State should have a chance to win, but finishing off Kentucky in Rupp Arena will certainly be a challenge. Kentucky, coming off a loss to Auburn, knows it must win this game to stay in the SEC race. That level of urgency will be an important factor for the Wildcats, who have bounced back from losses all season. They haven’t lost two straight games at any point this season. MSU threatens, but Kentucky wins by five.

Pick: Mississippi State +9.5