4 Teams Which Are Pretenders

The college basketball season is one week into February, and while you’re going to see teams seeded highly in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, not all of those high seeds have the same realistic chance to make the Final Four and win the national championship. A few teams likely to be seeded No. 2, No. 3, or No. 4 are not trustworthy this coming March, and we’ll tell you why.

1 – Duke Blue Devils

The Blue Devils do have a high ceiling. That much has to be admitted. They beat Gonzaga in a high-level game worthy of a Final Four. It is one of the best games this college basketball season. However, whereas Gonzaga has steadily gotten better over the course of the season, Duke has not. If anything, Duke has regressed. The Blue Devils don’t have consistent perimeter shooters to prevent defenses from packing the paint and denying the drive to the basket. Even in an ACC which is generally regarded as being much worse than in previous years, Duke has not been able to clearly separate itself from the rest of the pack. It’s true that Duke is clearly the best team, but the Blue Devils have not been the consistent leader in the ACC standings due to a home loss to Miami, a road loss to Florida State, and a level of performance which is not worthy of a Final Four team. Duke hasn’t been to the Final Four since 2015, and one should not expect this year to be different, even though it is Mike Krzyzewski’s swan song with the program after over 40 years on the bench in Durham.

2 – UCLA Bruins

The Bruins lost to both Arizona and Arizona State this past week, showing that they’re actually not the Pac-12 heavyweight many people thought they were when they drilled Arizona on January 25. UCLA doesn’t have a player who consistently takes over games. Jaime Jaquez and Johnny Juzang can be takeover-level players, but no one knows when they are going to be on or off. It’s a very hit-and-miss dynamic for the Bruins. UCLA should have been very focused and very intense on Saturday against Arizona State, since it had just lost to Arizona two days earlier. Yet, the Bruins looked flat, and they never could overwhelm Arizona State despite going to three overtimes. ASU, not UCLA, looked like the hungrier and fresher team. That’s a very alarming sign about UCLA’s mindset and overall quality. Elite teams need to win that kind of game. UCLA did not.

3 – Purdue Boilermakers

The Purdue Boilermakers will probably be seeded No. 2 in the NCAA Tournament, but they don’t inspire confidence. They haven’t lost often this season, but some of their wins have been shaky. They were very lucky to beat North Carolina State after trailing late in regulation. They blew a 20-point lead against Ohio State but won on a last-second shot. This team does things which speak to the kind of inconsistency which leads to a March exit. This is a very good team, but it’s not a great team which will transcend its flaws in single-elimination games.

4 – Villanova Wildcats

The Wildcats will probably be a No. 4 seed, but their chemistry just hasn’t been great this season. The veterans who were expected to carry the workload have not maxed out, and neither have the freshmen who were supposed to help them. The pieces of the puzzle just haven’t fit; don’t expect that dynamic to change, given that it has existed for three full months at this point.