Which No. 1 Seed Will Go Further In March Madness?

The drama of March Madness can be framed and shaped in many ways. One way to capture the suspense and tension of the event is to see which of the No. 1 seeds won’t make it to the Final Four. A top seed is generally expected to make the Final Four, or at the very least, make a strong run at college basketball’s coveted prize. When that top seed falls short of the Final Four, it’s a bitter disappointment, because it means that higher seed lost to a lower seed. The only time a No. 1 seed can lose to a higher seed is at the Final Four, not before it. So, let’s see which No. 1 seeds will go further, which also invites the reality that some No. 1 seeds won’t go as far.

No. 1 Seed To Advance The Furthest

Gonzaga +140

The Zags are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, so it stands to reason that they are the No. 1 seed with the best chance of going all the way and outlasting the other three top seeds in this tournament bracket. Gonzaga has the advantage of being in its home region, unlike Baylor and Arizona. Gonzaga also has teams in its region it has already played this season: Duke and Texas Tech. The familiarity of matchups should help Gonzaga as this tournament moves along. Gonzaga is unlikely to be surprised by any opponent it faces in the West Region. The Final Four might be more challenging, but Gonzaga might be the only top seed to even make it to the Final Four.

Arizona +260

The Wildcats are the top seed in the South Region. Note that they get to play the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in San Antonio, which is not that bad a location for a team which didn’t get to play in the West Region, its home region. Arizona won the Pac-12 regular season and tournament championships. The Wildcats lost to third-seeded Tennessee earlier in the season. Villanova is the No. 2 seed in Arizona’s region, so the draw in the Elite Eight is not easy at all. One thing to watch for is the health of Kerr Kriisa, the injured guard who missed the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals and finals after getting hurt in the quarterfinals. Arizona can probably survive without him on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but not the second.

Baylor +330

The Bears are without forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who is out for the season. Guard L.J. Cryer, one of the team’s best shooters and scorers, will miss the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament with an injury. If Cryer comes back for the second weekend, Baylor should have enough resources to beat UCLA or Saint Mary’s in a possible Sweet 16 game. However, No. 2 seed Kentucky is looming as the possible opponent for Baylor in the East Regional final. That will be a very difficult hurdle for a team whose roster is limited by the injuries which have plagued this team throughout 2022.

Kansas +335

The Jayhawks aren’t an imposing or overwhelming team, but they do play good defense. They do have inside-outside balance. They have players who play well together. Kansas got a good draw with Iowa and Providence as possible Sweet 16 opponents. Auburn could be a difficult Elite Eight opponent, but the Tigers have to win three games to face the Jayhawks. Kansas can’t complain with its path to the Final Four.