BAKER MAYFIELD, JIMMY GAROPPOLO. MISTAKES WERE MADE

BY ADAM GREENE

According to San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch, a team had an offer of two second round draft picks on the table in exchange for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Lynch told this story back in March to exemplify the value of the QB he’s actively looking to eject from his franchise.

If it’s true, what it actually shows is how poorly Lynch has played his hand. Two seconds for a QB you’re dying to move and not pay $26.95 million to be on your roster? Who doesn’t jump at that?

Now, a little over a month later, and as of this writing, two days before the NFL Draft, Garoppolo remains on their roster and the teams that “need” a quarterback continue to dwindle. And, sure, you could argue that the Niners aren’t “stuck” with Jimmy G’s contract because he just costs $1.4 million against the cap to cut, but why would you cut a guy you could have traded for two second round picks a month ago? That’s two high value starters.

This has all become an even bigger problem for the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield. They too have teamed up to play this divorce wrong in every way.

First off, the Browns took a dump on “Mayfield,” saying they wanted an “adult at that position.” And while that might make moving on from your local Progressive spokesman and stadium squatter easier to sell to the fanbase, what it doesn’t do is set the market ablaze for his talents. Telling the world, “Man, our guy sucks” doesn’t create the valuable trade market you’d hope.

Then, Mayfield, only to prove the Browns’ point, went on some podcast I’ve never heard of (that’s not a serious knock against it. I haven’t heard of most of them) and whined that he was “disrespected” by the Browns.

Will Rogers once said that you should never miss a good chance to shut up. Both the Browns and Mayfield would have been smart to follow that advice.

Because Mayfield wants to play. He thinks he’s an NFL starter and he’s right. He also thinks he’s an NFL franchise quarterback and he’s wrong, but there aren’t a lot of those on the planet. What he is, though, is under contract with Cleveland and it’s guaranteed, meaning they have to pay him $18.9 million this season no matter what they do. While the 49ers can save $25 million by giving Garoppolo the boot, the Browns are paying Mayfield nearly $19 million even if they send him to his Barcalounger.

Yeah, keeping that trap shut would have been smart.

No one outside of Mayfield thinks he’s better than Deshaun Watson. Having the chance to upgrade that position so significantly with a roster built to win now is a no-brainer move. Especially after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams won consecutive Super Bowls by doing exactly that.

You don’t have to publicly announce that Mayfield is a diaper baby. Just say that Watson is a better fit and that Baker will be an asset somewhere else. That’s it. Mayfield would still kick rocks about it, but that’s just who he is.

But we have two unique problems here in a league so desperate for quarterbacks. You have two QBs that are on the block, both want to play and both have won playoff games. One guy has made it all the way to the Super Bowl once and a conference championship game twice.

The 49ers did not understand the current quarterback market. They did not factor in the trades of established stars and even former MVPs that would be available, nor did they count on a robust free agent crop. The Browns did not factor in that crapping on their own guy might not make another team want to add him to its roster.

SO WHAT NOW?

By my accounting, there are just three teams that should be actively looking for quarterback upgrades before the draft — The Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.

While you could argue that Garoppolo or Mayfield would be an upgrade for more teams than that (the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins come to mind), those two teams don’t seem particularly interested in moving on from their young quarterbacks just yet. And they shouldn’t.

If you bring up Jared Goff in Detroit? Sure, I’d take Garoppolo over him, but Mayfield? No way.

With just three teams serving as the market and probably two quarterbacks going in the first round of the draft, there’s a good chance that neither the Browns or 49ers will be able to pull the trigger on a trade. If Lynch didn’t make that “two second rounders” story up, then it should be used as evidence to get out of paying him the remainder of his contract when he’s eventually fired.

As for Mayfield, plenty of teams would trade a late round pick to the Browns to add him as a back up at worst, but nobody on the planet is going to eat $18.9 million of guaranteed cap to do it. To cut any deal, Cleveland will have to choke on most of that. Maybe as much as $14 million of it.

San Francisco doesn’t have to shove Garoppolo off the side of the ship anytime soon. If they hold onto him through the start of the regular season, they’ll only be out another $1.35 million in guaranteed money via roster and workout bonuses. Most of his $26.95 million salary is not guaranteed, so they can pay him gamechecks up until the trade deadline if they want and let him eat up their cap until the market forms for him.

WHO WILL MAKE THE TRADES?

It all comes down to the first day of the NFL Draft. In my last mock draft, I had just one QB going in the first round — Kenny Pickett out of Pitt to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 20. The Steelers are not in the market for either trade.

I could see Malik Willis going in Round 1 as well, but a team would probably have to trade back up into it at the Detroit Lions No. 32 overall pick and get that coveted QB fifth year option. I could see the Texans or Panthers making that move. The fact that Willis played at Liberty and its ties to the Jerry Fallwell family probably makes him even more enticing to the religious cult Jack Easterby is running in Houston.

That leaves the Panthers and the Seahawks. I don’t see Seattle being in play for Garoppolo, but they could take Mayfield for a fifth or sixth and paying him just $4 million or so.

As for Carolina, Garoppolo would be a significant upgrade over anything they have on the roster or could draft. I could envision that deal happening, but unfortunately for Lynch, those “two second round picks” have likely sailed.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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