Early Look At U.S. Open Men’s Favorites, Longshots

The big drama of the 2022 U.S. Open men’s tournament is if Novak Djokovic will be granted an exemption from vaccine mandates and be allowed to play in the tournament. Currently, without vaccination, he won’t be able to play. If he doesn’t change his mind, and there are no signs that he will, the United States government has to change its policy. We’re going to operate under the assumption that Djokovic will not play. Obviously, if the government does make an adjustment, Djokovic would be the instant favorite to win the tournament, but without him, it’s a lot more interesting and uncertain.

Favorite: Daniil Medvedev

The favorite without Djokovic would be Daniil Medvedev, who won the U.S. Open last year for his first and still only major title. Hardcourts are clearly Medvedev’s best surface. He led Rafael Nadal two sets to love in the 2022 Australian Open final before letting that match slip away. Medvedev is the current World No. 1, and when on hardcourts, he plays like the big dog. Because Nadal suffered a slight abdominal tear at Wimbledon, which forced him to withdraw from the tournament after his quarterfinal win over Taylor Fritz, Nadal is not one of the two or three top favorites. He probably won’t play a tournament before the U.S. Open in order to rest and heal. That will hinder his preparation and leave him vulnerable to a mid-tournament upset before the semifinals or final. Medvedev making the final, at the very least, should be expected. He will be the top favorite unless he gets injured in the weeks preceding the U.S. Open.

Favorite: Carlos Alcaraz

The most intriguing debates at the U.S. Open are less about the No. 1 favorites and more about the players most likely to take down those favorites. Given Nadal’s questionable health, it’s anyone’s guess as to which player has the best chance of playing Medvedev in a possible final. The best choice is probably Carlos Alcaraz, who – like Iga Swiatek – was not ready to challenge on grass but is a solid, proven player on hardcourts. You’ll remember that Alcaraz made a deep run at Indian Wells in March and then won Miami a few weeks later to announce his arrival as a top-tier star in men’s tennis. He lost in the French Open quarterfinals to Alexander Zverev, but that loss didn’t feel like a stunning surprise. It was a lesson for a young player who still has much to learn. Zverev, though, is out with an injury. Stefanos Tsitsipas is struggling mightily. Dominic Thiem is improving but will probably not be ready to play at a championship level in New York. Matteo Berrettini could be an intriguing choice – he beat Alcaraz at the Australian Open – but Alcaraz seems to be in the best position to go deep in New York.

Longshot: Taylor Fritz

The American won Indian Wells and reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. He isn’t spoken of in the same breath as Alcaraz or Tsitsipas or Berrettini, but his level of play this year certainly gives him a realistic chance of going deep. Fritz still hasn’t reached the semifinal of a major tournament. He came very close at Wimbledon but barely lost to Nadal in the quarterfinals. He hasn’t gone past the fourth round of either hardcourt major – the Australian Open or the U.S. Open – so he won’t be seen as a top-tier favorite. He could, however, make some noise.

Longshot: Andrey Rublev

The Russian was banned from Wimbledon and, like Fritz, has not yet made the semifinals of any major tournament. He is also a second-tier contender behind the first line of threats to win the U.S. Open. Yet, he has a big game which translates well to hardcourts. Also, the Wimbledon ban means he will be physically fresh for the U.S. Open. In a five-set battle, he might have more stamina than a player who played several matches at Wimbledon. We will see.