ATLANTA FALCONS 2022 WIN PREDICTION

BY ADAM GREENE

In what turned out to be Matt Ryan’s swan song with the franchise, the Atlanta Falcons limped to the finish line a season ago, somehow staying tantalizingly in the playoff race mathematically, while realistically seeming out of it after Week 1.

Big wins? There weren’t any. The best you could hang your hat on in head coach Arthur Smith’s first campaign with the team was a 30-28 victory over the Miami Dolphins. You could also possibly point to a 27-25 win over the New Orleans Saints on Nov. 7. Those were Atlanta’s only victories over teams that finished with winning records in 2021. Neither the Dolphins nor the Saints made the playoffs and both will be fielding new head coaches in 2022.

Smith was brought in to add a play action run/pass attack to Atlanta similar to what he ran with the Tennessee Titans (and got the Falcons to a Super Bowl with Kyle Shanahan calling plays in 2016). It yielded poor results to say the least, with all-purpose weapon Cordarelle Patterson leading the team with 618 yards rushing. Mike Davis, the guy that was supposed to tote the load, averaged 3.6 yards per carry and gained a total of 503 yards.

Figuring out how to use Patterson in the offense is a good thing. He added 52 receptions for 548 yards in the passing game and scored 11 combined touchdowns. They needed the help because their No. 1 wide receiver Calvin Ridley was injured and only appeared in five games.

The true bright spot belonged to rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, who played as advertised and justified his draft position. He finished with 68 catches for 1,026 yards, but only got into the end zone one time.

Ryan’s final season with Atlanta was far from his best and will only be remembered because he’s not coming back. He finished with a 67 completion percentage, throwing for 3,968 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

The defense was one of the worst in the league, finishing 30^th on third down defense. Dante Fowler Jr. led the team with a piddling 4.5 sacks and, as a unit, they produced only 18 sacks on the season. Their -6 turnover differential was eighth worst in the NFL.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Last season: 7-10

Odds: Over 4.5 wins (-120), Under 4.5 wins (-110)

2022 NFL Draft: Drake London, WR, USC (Round 1), Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State (Round 2), Troy Anderson, LB, Montana State (Round 2), Desmond Ridder, Qb, Cincinnati (Round 3), DeAngelo Malone, Edge, Western Kentucky (Round 3), Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU (Round 5), Justin Shaffer, OG, Georgia (Round 6), John FitzPatrick, TE, Georgia (Round 6)

2022 Additions: Bryan Edwards, WR (trade), Marcus Mariota, QB (free agent), Casey Hayward, CB (free agent), Lorenzo Carter, DE (free agent), Rashaan Evans, LB (free agent), Damien Williams, RB (free agent), Vincent Taylor, DT (free agent), Anthony Firkser, TE (free agent), Michael Ford, CB (free agent), Germain Ifedi, RT (free agent), Damiere Byrd, WR (free agent), Dean Marlowe, SS (free agent), Elijah Wilkinson, OG (free agent), Bradley Pinion, P (free agent), Beau Brinkley, LS (free agent), Auden Tate, WR (free agent), Khadarel Hodge, WR (free agent), Nick Kwiatkoski, LB (free agent), Cameron Batson, WR (free agent), Jalen Tabor, CB (free agent)

Projected Starters

Offense

QB: Marcus Mariota

RB: Damien Williams

WR: Drake London

WR: Bryan Edwards

WR: Olamide Zaccheaus

TE: Kyle Pitts

FB: Keith Smith

LT: Jake Matthews

LG: Jalen Mayfield

C: Matt Hennessy

RG: Chris Lindstrom

RT: Kaleb McGary

Defense

LDE: Marlon Davidson

NT: Ta’Quon Graham

RDE: Grady Jarrett

WLB: Arnold Blake

LILB: Deion Jones

RILB: Rashaan Evans

SLB: Lorenzo Carter

CB: AJ Terrell

CB: Casey Hayward

SS: Dean Marlowe

FS: Erik Harris

Special Teams

PK: Younghoe Koo

P: Bradley Pinion

PR: Avery Williams

KR: Cordarrelle Patterson

PREVIEW

For a team that finished third in their division a season ago, the Falcons are stuck with a brutal schedule. There’s plenty of talk, if not hope, that quarterback Desmond Ridder will see the field for Atlanta and it’s possible. Not because Marcus Mariota plays poorly, but simply because Atlanta will probably be out of the playoff race after their Week 14 bye. That is very late in the season for a team with the Falcons’ roster deficiencies.

The offseason wasn’t kind. They moved Matt Ryan, per his request, in a trade to the Indianapolis Colts and added Marcus Mariota. That move was fine. What wasn’t fine was losing their best wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, to a season-long suspension after he was busted gambling on NFL games.

And while that looks like a huge hit to the team, there were rumors the Falcons were shopping Ridley in trades anyway.

Their first seven games are brutal. They open hosting the New Orleans Saints who finished 9-8 a season ago without Michael Thomas and starting Subway Sandwich artists at quarterback. Then they travel to the Los Angeles Rams, they’re at the Seattle Seahawks, then host the Cleveland Browns, play at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, host the San Francisco 49ers and then play at the Cincinnati Bengals.

And that’s all before they play the first game in which they’ll be favored, hosting the Carolina Panthers, in Week 8.

Atlanta’s not going to start 0-7, but 2-5 is very likely. I’m thinking they can steal one early against the Saints in Week 1, then catch a Trey Lance reeling 49ers in Week 6, which is why I think they’ll open 3-4 as they head into that Panthers game with a chance at .500 before November.

Their final five games are at the Saints, at the Baltimore Ravens, hosting the Arizona Cardinals and hosting the Bucs. Atlanta can be feisty and steal a few they should lose, but there are just too many guaranteed losses to open and close the schedule for a winning campaign.

Final record prediction: 7-10

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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