WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL WEEK 1

BY ADAM GREENE

Everyone overreacts after Week 1, but I feel like I’ve zeroed in on a couple of areas worth a closer look.

THE PRESEASON MIGHT MATTER

Hey, I’ve long been an advocate for hiding your starters from worthless exhibition games for years, but I’m willing to admit I might be wrong. MIGHT.

In Week 1, teams that protected starters in the preseason went 3-7. Two of those three wins belonged to the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings, who just happened to play teams (the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers respectively) who ALSO did not field starters in August.

Only one team that kept its key players in street clothes before the real games began won against a team that actually played starters in the preseason — the Baltimore Ravens. And they beat the New York Jets, who lost their starting QB on a scramble in the first exhibition game.

So what’s the winning argument? I don’t know. I would always err on the side of keeping my players healthy for when it matters. Doing so will obviously cost a team like the Los Angeles Rams when playing the Buffalo Bills in the opening contest. Sean McVay was 5-0 in openers heading into last Thursday’s NFL Kickoff Game. Those five wins came against Indianapolis Colts (with Jacoby Brissett at QB) in 2017 (a team that finished below .500), the then Oakland Raiders in 2018 (also finished below .500), the 2019 Carolina Panthers (you guessed it, finished below .500), the 2020 Dallas Cowboys (yep, below .500) and the 2021 Chicago Bears (I don’t even have to write it out at this point, do I? I will though. They finished below .500).

The Bills will not finish below .500 and the Rams, who are now under .500 themselves for the first time in McVay’s tenure, couldn’t screw around for three quarters and get their act together to beat them as they could their previous five Week 1 opponents.

Will this change anything? With 10 teams resting starters in the exhibition schedule, that means that 22 teams played their key guys. Not all them won Sunday.

I would still lean on keeping my main roster off the field in the summertime. But the teams that knocked the rust off in August certainly looked to have the advantage in Week 1.

THE COWBOYS MIGHT NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

The deck looked so stacked in Dallas’ favor when the schedule was first released. Their Sunday night game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was a loss back in March, as was next week’s against the Cincinnati Bengals. After that, they had what looked pretty much like a cakewalk most of the way with one of the easiest schedules in the league.

But with Dak Prescott possibly missing the next eight weeks, there might not be a winnable game on their schedule. Not with Cooper Rush starting and whatever Fudrucker’s Grillmaster they can coax out of the kitchen to be his back up.

Dallas doesn’t get a bye until Week 9. The next six games after the Bengals are the New York Giants (who shocked the Tennessee Titans in Week 1), the Washington Commanders, the Rams, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears (who knocked off the San Francisco 49ers).

Does anyone expect Cooper Rush, with Mike McCarthy calling the plays, to do anything against that?

It might be time to give the 49ers a call on Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s no telling how healthy Dak will be when he does get to return.

TRADING AJ BROWN MIGHT HAVE BEEN DUMBER THAT IT LOOKED

And it looked pretty stupid on Draft Day, as the Tennessee Titans shipped their young star wide receiver to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a low first round pick and a handful of magic beans.

The Titans lost to the New York Giants in Week 1 and probably could have really used a playmaking receiver to keep that from happening. In Brown’s first action with the Eagles, he caught 10 passes for 155 yards and Philly needed every one of them to hold off the Detroit Lions to win 38-35.

Does anyone think 155 yards receiving wouldn’t have made a difference for the Titans against the Giants Sunday?

2021 PLAYOFF TEAMS TOOK A REAL HIT

Teams that made the postseason in 2021 went 5-9 in Week 1, with both Super Bowl participants, the aforementioned Rams and Bengals, dropping their openers. Four of the five Week 1 winners played other 2021 playoff teams (the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

That means that five of the 2021 playoff field franchises fell to squads who watched the postseason at home back in January. Does it mean anything? I don’t know, but it’s kind of remarkable to see it all put together.

Some of the losses, the Titans falling to the Giants and the 49ers losing to the Chicago Bears, looked especially bad considering the expectations of their opponents.

The Rams get the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2 and the Bengals get the Dak-less Cowboys, so there’s reason to think they’ll get back to .500. Dallas, as I wrote above, might not sniff it this season.

The Raiders play the Cardinals, so that’s an 0-2 start for somebody. The Pack host the Chicago Bears, a team in which Aaron Rodgers’ paternity has been long established. Even with a better Bears team, they’ll probably be fine. The Pats play at the Steelers and the Titans are at the Bills, so good luck with that. It looks like a couple of 0-2 starts right there.

The most intriguing game might be the Seattle Seahawks at the 49ers. Seattle was surprisingly spry in their upset victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday night. If San Fran can’t get right against what looked like, on paper, one of the worst teams in the league, Trey Lance’s tenure as a starter might be short lived.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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