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There was one goal in the 2022 offseason for the Buffalo Bills — make the roster changes necessary to catch the Kansas City Chiefs. And, you know, maybe they did by adding Von Miller and a handful of new players via free agency and the draft, but there was just one problem. The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t go to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021-22 season, the Cincinnati Bengals did.
And it was those Bengals who ended the Bills 2022-23 season with a humiliating 27-10 defeat in Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round. While every pundit was ready to anoint the Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes rivalry as the next Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning quarterback duel, Joe Burrow decided he’d set fire to all of it.
Now, the bright side for Buffalo is, in their one match up with the Chiefs, they did win 24-20 on Oct. 16. We didn’t get to see how their regular season match up with the Bengals would have ended because of Damar Hamlin’s injury, and near death, forced them to cancel the contest with Cincy up 7-3.
So it was back to the drawing board early for the Bills, who are, at worst, the third best team in the AFC and maybe the third best in the entire NFL. What they need to do now is keep their present roster together and just add talent to it. And, maybe get a lucky break or two.
In my AFC Quarterback Rankings article, I compared Josh Allen and the Bills to the 1990s Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre. If you weren’t around then, let me see if I can make the case. Punditry and, honestly, people who just wanted the league to be as fun as possible, loved Favre because of his freakish natural ability and personality. This was during his playing days, before Favre sent out pictures of his Last of Us Clicker to unsuspecting team employees and ripped off welfare recipients. You know, old folksy, silly and kinda stupid super fun Favre. We loved him.
But there were a couple of problems with the “Packers and Favre are going to break” narrative. And those problems were the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. While Favre was everybody’s favorite story and the guy punditry (especially John Madden) openly rooted for, Troy Aikman and Steve Young just keep beating him and going to Super Bowls. Four of them between the two, to be exact. It took Aikman and Young’s careers basically wrapping up due to injuries (concussions, specifically) for Favre to “break through” and he did, winning Super Bowl XXXI over the New England Patriots.
I don’t think it’ll work that way for Allen. The Bills, Chiefs and Bengals all have very similar rosters, with stars at key spots outside of the QB position. Allen, though, will be judged historically in how he matches up against Mahomes and Burrow now, and probably for the rest of his career. All three of these guys will be roadblocks to the others and, right now, Burrow and Mahomes have a significant edge when it counts the most.
BUFFALO BILLS
2022-23 Record: 13-3
Playoffs: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round
2023 AFC Championship Odds: +550
NOW WHAT?
There’s three ingredients to building and maintaining a successful franchise and they are a quarterback, a head coach and a front office. After signing Allen to his long term deal a season ago, the Bills did the smart thing and locked up both head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane through 2027. McDermott is 66-40 as a head coach, with a 4-5 playoff record. Since he was hired in 2017, the Bills have only missed the playoffs once, even when they really didn’t want to make it in McDermott’s first season. He was just too good to keep out of the bracket, even with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Keeping him and Beane under contract wasn’t just the right move, it was the only serious move and one that will keep Buffalo in contention for a good, long while.
All his not been wine and roses this offseason however. Stefon Diggs, who wore out his welcome in Minnesota, seems to be attempting to do the same in Buffalo. He had a public sideline tantrum in the team’s playoff loss to the Bengals last season, seemingly directing it at Allen. Apparently that stink has lingered through the offseason and, according to plenty of people, it’s specifically an issue between Allen, not only the face of the franchise and one of the faces of the entire NFL, and Diggs, a very talented, but apparently moody receiver. And, if history shows anything, those guys either get their act together or are shipped out of town. Diggs’ dead cap number is so high, a trade seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible. Teams have taken those kinds of hits before to remove cancers from the locker room.
Like I said, there’s never going to be a battle between Josh Allen and anybody on that roster (or, frankly coach or member of the front office) that doesn’t end with Allen on top. Diggs’ dead cap hit with a trade is $45.466 million. So, it’d be best for everyone if they can work this out, because it’s definitely not a distraction that will help them catch the Chiefs or Bengals this season. Diggs is an NFL superstar. He led the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) in his first season with Allen and the Bills. Last year was nearly as good as he caught 108 passes for 1,429 yards and a career high 11 touchdowns. I’m not sure how they could focus more on him in the offense. That seems pretty Diggs focused to me.
THE DRAFT
Buffalo aced this past draft, adding one of the three best tight ends in Dalton Kincaid out of Utah in the first round, then my second favorite offensive lineman, O’Cyrys Torrence from Florida in the second. They selected Dorian Williams at linebacker from Tulane in the third, ending their draft with a solid A- grade from yours truly. There weren’t really any holes on the Bills’ roster heading into the draft and even Kincaid isn’t slated to start in their base package as Dawson Knox is currently TE1. That’s how good this team is today.
FREE AGENCY
Buffalo continued to add former Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl winners this offseason, with edge rusher Leonard Floyd joining his former teammate Von Miller up front. They also brought in safety Taylor Rapp, linebacker Travin Howard and guard David Edwards, all from the Rams. Connor McGovern at guard joins Buffalo from the Dallas Cowboys and Brandon Shell at tackle comes over from the Miami Dolphins. Poona Ford at defensive end joins the team from the Seattle Seahawks and cornerback Cameron Dantzler from the Washington Commanders. At the skill positions on offense, the Bills added wide receivers Trent Shefield from the Dolphins and Deonte Harty from the New Orleans Saints. Kyle Allen will back up Josh Allen at QB from the Houston Texans. At running back, one of the least talked about significant signings of this offseason was Damien Harris as they stole him away from the New England Patriots. They also added Latavius Murray at RB from the Denver Broncos. Harris rushed for 463 yards (in a much diminished role with the Pats) in 2022, averaging 4.4 yards per carry while scoring three touchdowns. It was his 2021 season that he could replicate in Buffalo, where he gained 929 yards on the ground and scored 15 touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Harris could turn into the bellcow back in that offensive attack and deliver the Bills their first 1,000-yard rusher since LeSean McCoy in 2017.
AFC EAST
There’s an idea out there floating around that the AFC East will be the toughest division in the NFL. It’s predicated on the New England Patriots not being garbage, but they will be. And, because of that, I think the AFC North will get that distinction. Three AFC East teams will vie for the playoffs and I, like everyone else, feel as if Aaron Rodgers will pay off for the New York Jets, at least with a Wild Card berth, immediately. The Dolphins, with a healthy Tua Tagovailao, aren’t going anywhere. I don’t think either team has caught the Bills and the East should still belong to them. The biggest problem for Buffalo, and it’ll be the same with the Bengals in the North, the strength of this division will make it that much harder to lock up home field advantage in the playoffs. It’s important because, as good as Patrick Mahomes has been, the Chiefs have held home field advantage for the last five seasons. He’s never played a road playoff game in his career. Buffalo will find it a lot easier to “break through” if they aren’t facing Mahomes at Arrowhead in late January.
Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.
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