NFL PRESEASON WEEK 3: SATURDAY & SUNDAY PREVIEWS & PICKS

BY ADAM GREENE

We’re officially there, the final week of the NFL Preseason. It’s the last chance NFL teams have to screw up your fantasy football teams if you were crazy enough to hold your draft before this weekend. I mean, how many times do you need to see a key starter go down with an injury in the exhibition schedule, a guy taken in the first or second round in your snake draft, before you learn not to hold your draft meeting until after the final starter leaves the field in August?  

If Don from Accounting can’t make it to the draft when you hold it Monday night after Week 3, that’s just tough. You can’t let him screw up everyone else’s fantasy football experience because his kid has some ridiculous youth soccer game. This is America, for God’s sake. Toss your kid a video game controller and be done with it, Don.

There’s still plenty of NFL action for us to pay attention to besides keeping our fingers crossed before our fantasy football draft clocks start ticking Monday night. We wrap up the final full slate of games on Saturday and Sunday with the odds, lines and totals with which to make watching every down of these games worth our precious time.

SATURDAY

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3, O/U: 40)

It’s the final preseason game so you’d think that the Seahawks would pack Geno Smith in foam peanuts for two more weeks considering their postseason hopes rest on his shoulders, but Pete Carroll is the definition of old school, probably because he’s incredibly old. Anyway, expect to see a little Geno at least for a series or two before Drew Lock and Holton Ahlers, who I didn’t know existed as a human three weeks ago, put cleat to turf. Honestly, I’m still not 100 percent Ahlers isn’t some AI creation, possibly connected to all these alien UFOs the government has decided it’s OK for us to know about now. Matt LaFleur, being of the Sean McVay coaching tree, usually doesn’t play starters himself, but decided to kick the tires on Jordan Love in the preseason. Love has looked good enough that maybe he’ll just get to play on his Microsoft Surface Tablet in this one. If LaFleur wants to prove he can win without Rodgers, he’s sure as hell not going to do it with Sean Clifford and Alex McGough. Seahawks 23, Packers 16

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5, 36.5)

The way I roll with these preseason picks, if it’s not making sense by now, is by focusing entirely on the strength of a team’s quarterback room. The Cardinals’ quarterback room is already a mess, with Kyler Murray sidelined with nothing but his Playstation 5 to keep him company. Colt McCoy, who’s a fine back up, will be starting the majority, if not all, the season so we’re getting a solid dose of Clayton Tune and David Blough in the preseason, which is why Arizona managed just 10 points a week ago. Minnesota, coached by Kevin O’Connell, will not let everyone’s favorite Quarterback TV show quarterback, Kirk Cousins, look twice at the field. The Vikes’ backups are Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall, and while Mullens has started, and even won, real NFL games, Hall is probably a camp arm at best. This could turn out to be the ugliest game on the schedule, but I’ll go with the Tune-Blough connection here. Cardinals 16, Vikings 13

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5, O/U: 41.5)

Speaking of backup quarterbacks, the Browns look like they’ve nailed their late round selection in UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR has been pretty fantastic for Cleveland so far and I’m expecting he will again. I’m not sure we’ll see Deshaun Watson and whatever Charlie horses he’s been dealing with over the last few years. Last week, Andy Reid left Patrick Mahomes in for a frighteningly long time and I’m nervous even looking at his stats a week later. Coaching Santa may once again put his prized reindeer at risk, but no one listens to me. Blaine Gabbert and his backups will take most of the snaps, but I’m confident Thompson-Robinson and Joshua Dobbs have more than enough to wrap this one up. Browns 27, Chiefs 20

BUFFALO BILLS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5, O/U: 39)

Like the Andy Ried with the Chiefs, Sean McDermott continues to toss Josh Allen out in the preseason in spite of the fact that I, figuratively, toss myself in front of him like I’m trying to catch a bullet for the president. Chicago, on the other hand, decided Justin Fields had no reason to set foot onto the field last week and, again, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus and I are in perfect agreement. I have no idea what McDermott will do this week, but Eberflus will surely continue keeping Fields in bubble wrap for another week. Bills 23, Bears 13

NEW YORK JETS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+4.5, O/U: 39.5)

Apparently there’s an idea that Aaron Rodgers is going to suit up and play in this game for the Jets. It’s caused a tad of controversy in the team’s fanbase, who is rightly concerned that the future first ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer they’ve landed on their roster could get his clock thoroughly cleaned behind their lackluster offensive line. Of course, that doesn’t help A-Rodge in the actual season, but at least those games count. The Giants should probably keep Daniel Jones clear of the field, but Tyrod Tayler can do enough to win this one, especially against Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle. Giants 24, Jets 17

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-7, O/U: 40.5)

The Dolphins and Jaguars took entirely different approaches last week, as Miami pushed Tua Tagovailoa onto the field for some reason while the Jags hid Trevor Lawrence’s helmet from him. I’m going to believe that Tua will be kept out of harm’s way in this one, but I’m not digging this spread at all. I’d take Mike White and Skylar Thompson, who nearly knocked off the Bills in the playoffs last season, over CJ Bethard and Nathan Rourke any day. Dolphins 27, Jaguars 17

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (+4.5, O/U: 38)

Vegas’ acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo has already worked out OK. After worries in the offseason that his foot wasn’t fully healed, even to the point of amending his contract, the Raiders tossed Jimmy G out there a week ago and watched him go 4-for-4 against the Los Angeles Rams, a team he’s lost a total of one time to in his entire career. Of course, that loss was in the 2021-22 NFC Championship so that’s gotta sting, but his regular season (and now preseason) domination of the Rams has to mean something, right? I suspect Garoppolo won’t play much, if at all in this one. Dallas has smartly, and I’m as shocked as anyone since Mike McCarthy is their head coach, held out Dak Prescott and hopefully will continue to do so. Raiders 20, Cowboys 13

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-6, O/U: 37)

Speaking of the Rams, no team in the league’s history has put less stock in the preseason than Sean McVay’s crew. That being said, should we be concerned about how poorly their defense has played in the exhibition season? I’m not expecting an elite D unit to be fielded in LA, but I’m pretty sure Aaron Donald alone can change the outcome of plenty of what we seen. Of course, Donald won’t play a down in this one. Denver is still breaking guys into Sean Payton’s system and that includes Russell Wilson, who played a series last week. I have no clue if he’ll go or not in this one, but one of these winless preseason teams will finally break the seal here. I’m going with the Rams. Rams 20, Broncos 19

SUNDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5, O/U: 38.5)

A week ago, the Texans got absolutely nothing out of either of their quarterbacks, scoring just three points against the Miami Dolphins. No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud did look better in Week 2, going 7 of 12 for 60 yards, but there wasn’t a lot of big time throws even attempted and averaging 5.0 yards per completion isn’t getting anyone excited. While no one expects the Texans to do anything but post a losing record this year, it’s a different story in New Orleans. The NFC South should be theirs for the taking after Tom Brady’s legitimate retirement and, if they don’t do it, it will likely cost head coach Dennis Allen his job. Regardless, Jameis Winston will certainly have enough to take NoLa across the finish line here, even in just a half of work. Saints 23, Texans 16

Last week

Straight up: 9-5-2

Against the spread: 9-7

Preseason

Straight up: 18-13-2

Against the spread: 17-16

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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