WHAT WE LEARNED: NFL WEEK 12

BY ADAM GREENE

We’ve wrapped Week 12 of the NFL season. Here’s what we’re talking about.

FRANK REICH GETS THE AX

It’s been quite a month for the employment grim reaper. In the span of four consecutive weeks, we’ve had our fourth coaching change, this time it was David Tepper, who is only not considered the worst owner in the NFL because Jimmy Haslam walks the Earth, that decided to part ways with a shellshocked Frank Reich, who had to be questioning every single decision he’s made that led him to Charlotte in the first place.

The news officially broke Monday morning as Tepper lined the halls of the Panthers’ facility with Chick Bible tracks, luring Reich into the airlock, before shutting the door, hitting the button and jettisoning the former Buffalo Bills four-time Super Bowl losing backup quarterback into space.

Reich is the third head coach in the last three years to be fired before completing his first full season with a team, joining Urban Meyer (2021) and Nathaniel Hackett (2022) in that illustrious group of dipsticks.

This is, of course, the second year in a row where Riech has been fired in the season. I’m not sure that’s ever happened before. His coaching career ends, likely for good (at least as a head coach) with a 42-45-1 record and a 1-10 mark with the Panthers, a job he should have never taken in the first place.

As is often the case when breakups happen, the truth has started to trickle out in the day since, mainly that Reich, a former NFL quarterback himself, wanted to take Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud at No. 1 overall while Tepper overruled him to select Alabama’s Bryce Young. Stroud has, in 12 weeks, proven to be the best rookie quarterback in NFL history and has already pocketed the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award that he will officially pick up in February. Young, well, I’m sure his mom still loves him very much.

Of course, Tepper wasn’t alone in thinking Young was the top QB prospect in the draft. It was pretty much the consensus, minus a few outliers (of which I was proudly one). So, you can’t really crap on the guy for that. What you can do is know that Reich had to know this when he took the job. That Tepper wanted Young over Stroud and that the former Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles knew that going in. This was not dropped on Reich once he signed his contract.

Tuesday, Tepper decided to hold a press conference to quash that particular rumor and, of course, did not achieve that goal.

“It’s been reported and we talked about it,” Tepper said. “Originally, we were going to go with the number two pick and we thought we would get C.J. because we thought the Texans were going to pick Bryce. And listen, we preferred Bryce, he was our number one pick. We had a lot of conviction. But in answer to your questions, it’s just not the way the process was done. The process was done the way the process was done. And again, even if there was a process with five people in the room and the way the votes came in and Frank was the first choice, I always could veto that choice. And even if it was Bryce and the votes came in unanimously in this particular case, I could have vetoed that choice. In both cases, I supported both choices. I supported the coaches. I supported the scouts — their unanimous opinion, and I supported Frank Reich. Whatever is good, bad, or indifferent, ultimately, the buck stops here and I take full responsibility for everything. And one last thing, as far as Bryce Young is concerned and I think everybody in this building would share this sentiment, we are totally confident in that pick.”

Of course, that makes no sense because the Texans had the No. 2 selection and they were absolutely going to take whichever of the two QBs fell to them. They would not have traded that pick to the Panthers in the first place, so this is all obviously untrue. Tepper wanted to trade up for Young. It was his call, like all the other calls since he bought the Panthers. And like those others, it was a bad one.

Now, of course, Bryce Young’s story hasn’t been written yet. The kid has tons of talent and, if he can stay healthy and Carolina can put a good team around him, there’s every chance he could pan out as a franchise quarterback. Of course, it would help if Tepper and general manager Scott Fitterer hadn’t traded away their two best offensive players over the last two seasons, Christian McCaffery and DJ Moore, as well as this year’s first round pick, which will likely be USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

So Tepper and Poles traded DJ Moore, Darnell Wright (the first round tackle the Bears selected with the pick they got from the Panthers as part of the deal) and now Caleb Williams for Bryce Young. Williams, who could very well be a generational talent and the guy that looks most like Patrick Mahomes coming out of college since Patrick Mahomes (except he played for a real and competitive NCAA program at USC instead of Texas Tech) will go No. 1 overall. Most likely to the Bears, who own the Panthers’ pick.

Good job, Dave. I’m sure that Poles will be joining Reich in the bread line soon enough.

Chris Tabor, their former special teams coach, has been named the Panthers’ interim head coach. I assume this is to keep anything like happened last season, when interim head coach Steve Wilks nearly got the team into the playoff almost screwing up Tepper’s plans to hire Reich and handcraft this complete disaster in the first place.

In his first move as interim head coach, Tabor immediately fired QB coach Josh McCown and running backs coach Duce Staley.

Here’s the most important part of this whole thing. I am all for firing an underperforming head coach in the season and, since it’s not my money, whether it’s the guy’s first or second year, that doesn’t bother me.

The issue here is, this is now a horrible job. It wasn’t when Reich took it, on paper, before they traded away their 2024 pick and best wide receiver, but it is now. And no quality head coaching prospect is going to want to work with Tepper, ever, unless he overpays significantly and, even then, if you’re serious about being a head coach and are fine making $8 million a year instead of $10 million, you’ll probably pick another franchise.

Is there a chance Tabor can keep the job? Sure, but he doesn’t have nearly the team that Wilks had last year, plus he would probably have to show a ridiculous improvement, like going 4-2 down the stretch, to make it happen. It doesn’t seem possible.

Now, Tepper has already proven to be suspect in his football decision making, but I have to believe someone is in his ear telling him that, if they want to salvage the Bryce Young pick and to have any chance of pulling out of this spiral that he himself has created, Tepper must hire an offensive-minded head coach. The top candidates, Detroit Lions Ben Johnson, Texans OC Bobby Slowik and Dolphins OC Frank Smith are off the table. They will not take this job. Hell, Johnson turned it down last offseason.

That also means defensive guys like Dan Quinn and Raheem Morris (neither would take the job) are off the table. Tepper should not even look in a defensive coordinator’s direction, and that includes Steve Wilks, the guy he probably should have hired last year.

You can also forget Lincoln Riley, who if he finally does decide to take an NFL job, will have his pick of any and all available spots. He’s not going to Carolina.

So, who would? It comes down to, I think, two names that no one would probably make their first choice, second choice or even fifth choice. I’m talking current Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and former Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Moore took his talent to Malibu beach to show he can craft his own offense out of Mike McCarthy and Jason Garrett’s Laurel and Hardy-sh shadows and the results, well, they’ve not been great.

Kingsbury, on the other hand, balked at taking any OC jobs this offseason (and would have walked into one with the Los Angeles Rams, most likely if he hadn’t). Unlike Moore, he has proven he can coach at the NFL level and put together a winning and playoff campaign with the Cardinals and their own talented, but undersized, quarterback. I think he’s the guy.

Speaking of the Rams, Mike LaFleur, their current offensive coordinator and brother to Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur could also be an option. Matt LaFleur and Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell are both former Rams OCs and have had solid head coaching runs of their own. Mike LaFleur could be the next guy. It’s probably why he took the job with the Rams, because he’s not calling any plays, Sean McVay is.

WHO’S THE NEXT HEAD COACH FACING THE CHOPPING BLOCK?

In a normal NFL season, there is an average of 6-7 head coaches fired by its end. Which is a lot, considering there are only 32 of these jobs on the planet. According to NFL insider Adam Schefter, it could be as many as 10 this season by the time a Super Bowl Champion is crowned. I’m no math expert, but that’s nearly a third of the league.

We’ve already had two loaded up into the catapult and fired over the horizon, so who’s next? According to the odds, Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Chargers is on borrowed time. He’s riding high atop the odds rankings with a +125 payout which could be collected as early as next Monday morning if the team loses to the hapless New England Patriots.

Speaking of those Pats, Bill Belichick, the Super Genius himself, is seventh in the odds at +2000.

Here’s how it all stacks up;

Brandon Staley +125

Ron Rivera +175

Todd Bowles +900

Kevin Stefanski +1600

Dennis Allen +1400

Matt Eberflus +1600

Bill Belichick +200

Sean McDermott +2500

Robert Saleh +2500

Pete Carroll +3300

Now, the mystery of this list is, why isn’t Arthur Smith, the awful head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, on it? I can only assume because I was not consulted. Because I would not have Pete Carroll listed at all. Yes, the Seattle Seahawks are stumbling and will probably miss the playoffs, but that’s not on Pete. Also, Sean McDermott, while he should probably be on the list, should also be dead last in the odds.

Kevin Stefanski? I can’t see the Browns moving on from him. He’s been handed a horrible hand by ownership, much like Reich was in Carolina, and has made chicken salad over the last two seasons out of the other stuff. He should be fine.

Ron Rivera, on the other hand, already has one foot out the door and should be fired at the end of the season.

But that doesn’t mean he’s the next guy.

Staley is the best bet there. I think the only other guy on this list in danger of getting chucked in-season is Matt Eberflus, who will most definitely be fired at year’s end even if he makes it to Week 18. Staley too, if he can survive Christmas and New Year’s, won’t survive the headman’s blade come the middle of January short of running the table (or, at the very least, finishing 9-8).

Todd Bowles, Dennis Allen and the (I’m flabbergasted about it) unlisted Arthur Smith are all in danger of getting fired if their teams don’t make the playoffs. One of them has to and, I’m guessing the oddsmakers here still feel Atlanta has the inside track. Either way, the two guys left out in the cold are going to stay there, unemployed.

That’s already seven all but guaranteed end of season firings. What about Bill Belichick and Robert Saleh?

Robert Kraft is apparently fed up with Dolla Dolla Bill, but I can’t see the guy getting fired. I also can’t see him taking over some moribund franchise and completely crapping all over his already waning head coaching cache by ruining it with the Washington Commanders or the aforementioned Panthers. I think Bill will retire before that happens.

It doesn’t mean he’s done as a head coach. Belichick’s old boss, Bill Parcells, retired and unretired multiple times, coming back when the situation suited him. The Super Genius could do the same.

As for Saleh, with Aaron Rodgers coming back, I can’t see that happening. Yes, Saleh is part of the problem in New York. He’s too defense oriented, calling out his own offense in the preseason like he’s not their coach too. He’s also apparently pushed around by the Johnsons, the Jets owners, considering his answer to possibly benching Zach Wilson a few weeks ago, was “Fair question. I don’t know. I’m gonna plead the Fifth.” Which sounds a lot like a guy not running his own team. If you have a head coach with such a, let’s say, poorly sized sack, that you can push around that way as the owner, you probably should fire him. I don’t think the Johnsons will.

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY

Alright, here’s the fun part.

AFC

1. Baltimore Ravens 9-3

2. Kansas City Chiefs 8-3

3. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-3

4. Miami Dolphins 8-3

5. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-4

6. Cleveland Browns 7-4

7. Indianapolis Colts 6-5

In the mix: Houston Texas (6-5), Denver Broncos (6-5), Buffalo Bills (6-6), Cincinnati Bengals (5-6), Las Vegas Raiders (5-7), Los Angeles Chargers (4-7), Tennessee Titans (4-7), New York Jets (4-7)

Let’s be realistic here. In spite of my old, ancient enemy math, the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bengals aren’t making the playoffs. I should not have to tell you why. The only reason I don’t included the Chargers in that group is the sheer amount of talent on both sides of the ball on that team. If you’re talking about the best potential job opening next season, that is most definitely it.

The Browns and Colts, while currently holding a seed, will likely drop out. That means that the Texans, Broncos and Bills will battle over two of the three Wild Card spots. I feel like the Steelers, especially since firing Matt Canada, have a smooth track to the playoffs and a first-round loss to the Dolphins, Jags or Chiefs.

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles 10-1

2. San Francisco 49ers 8-3

3. Detroit Lions 8-3

4. Atlanta Falcons 5-6

5. Dallas Cowboys 8-3

6. Seattle Seahawks 6-5

7. Minnesota Vikings 6-6

In the mix: Green Bay Packers (5-6), Los Angeles Rams (5-6), New Orleans Saints (5-6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7), New York Giants (4-8), Chicago Bears (4-8), Washington Commanders (4-8).

Once again, math has gotten squirrely here, so let’s just put this out there — the Giants, Bears and Commanders are not making the playoffs. You can forget that.

As for the Bucs and Saints, as mentioned above, some NFC South team has to make it and that’s the only reason to mention them here.

The Cowboys have the fifth seed on lock. That’s not changing, so we have the sixth and seventh seeds up for grabs and only four teams, realistically, have a shot. The two that currently hold down the spots along with the Packers and Rams. Minnesota has the week off, the Rams have the depleted Browns, the Seahawks will absolutely get blown out by the Cowboys Thursday night and the Packers will have their hands full hosting the Kansas City Chiefs and the Swifty army.

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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