How Many Passing Yards Will Rookie Quarterbacks Throw For?

Of the six quarterbacks taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, there’s an outside chance five of them

could be starters on opening day. Realistically, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are

the three most likely to be under center in week one. We’ve seen a first-year signal caller throw

for at least 3,640 yards in five of the last six seasons (Stroud, Lawrence, Herbert, Murray,

Mayfield). How many will hit their totals in 2024? Let’s dive in and find out.

Caleb Williams – Regular Season Passing Yards

Over 3500.5 Yards -130

Under 3500.5 Yards +100

In 2022, Caleb Willams threw for 4,537 yards off 500 attempts. He went on to win the Heisman.

The following season he threw for 3,633 yards off 388 attempts last season. While transitioning

from college to the NFL is a big step up, Williams will be in a comfortable situation in Chicago as

the Bears have one of the league’s top offensive lines and are armed with game breakers at

wide receiver including Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and rookie Rome Odunze. Barring injuries,

Williams needs to average just 205 yards a game to top this total.

Jayden Daniels – Regular Season Passing Yards

Over 3250.5 Yards -115

Under 3250.5 Yards -115

Only 21 quarterbacks have thrown for more than 3,250 yards in their rookie year but 17 of those

pivots have come after 2010 which means the new breed of quarterbacks are letting it fly. While

the Commanders lack offensive depth it still has playmakers. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson

are legit targets but the wildcard for Daniels may be Austin Ekeler. He’s been a great receiver

out of the backfield racking up almost 4,000 yards in seven seasons. OC Kliff Kingsbury will

build the offense around Daniels and helped Kyler Murray throw for 3,722 yards in his 2019

rookie campaign. At LSU, Daniels threw for 3,812 yards in 12 games last season. All signs

point to Daniels also hitting this number.

Bo Nix – Regular Season Passing Yards

Over 2950.5 Yards -115

Under 2950.5 Yards -115

Any chance of Bo Nix going over this number depends on if you think he’ll be the starter for the

entire season. The Broncos traded for Zach Wilson and drafted Nix and you’d have to assume

the former Oregon Duck will be the main guy at some point. He’d need to average 173 yards if

he played all 17 games. In College, Nix was precise with his throws. He set an all-time NCAA

record for completion percentage in a season in 2023 and left Oregon as the program’s leader

in career completion percentage. Many experts feel Nix will be successful this season, meaning

going over this number.