Falcons vs. Eagles Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football: Robinson Runs Wild

The Atlanta Falcons head to Philadelphia to face the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2. After a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers that relied heavily on Kirk Cousins’ passing, the Falcons are expected to shift their focus to their ground game, featuring standout rookie Bijan Robinson. Here’s why Robinson is the centerpiece of my NFL picks for this matchup.

Best Bet: Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Analysis:

There has been much attention on Kirk Cousins’ health this week, particularly given the concerns surrounding the Falcons’ $180 million investment after the Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. Despite the speculation from game footage and practice reps, the Falcons’ strategy moving forward is evident: they need to bolster their running game.

In Week 1 against the Steelers, the Falcons managed just 89 rushing yards, running the ball on 44% of their offensive plays. Bijan Robinson led the rushing attack with 18 carries for 68 yards, participating in 89% of the offensive snaps. Although Tyler Allgeier is another capable runner on the roster, Robinson was the primary ball carrier. Head coach Raheem Morris indicated that they planned to run more than the 21 designed runs they attempted, but penalties and errors forced the Falcons into more passing plays, increasing pressure on Cousins.

Looking ahead to Week 2, the Falcons face a Philadelphia defense that struggled against the run, allowing the Packers to rush for 163 yards at 7.8 yards per carry. The Eagles rank 31st in EPA allowed per rush attempt after Week 1, creating a prime opportunity for Robinson to exploit a softer run defense.

Robinson’s 18 carries in Week 1 were among the highest of his career so far, and projections for Week 2 suggest another heavy workload. Rushing models estimate Robinson’s total yardage to range from 69 to 80 yards, all surpassing the current Over/Under of 64.5 yards. My estimate puts Robinson at 72 rushing yards, with the potential for more, especially if Cousins’ performance remains limited. Given Philadelphia’s struggles to stop the run, Robinson could be poised for a significant game.

Additional Notes:

• A fumble at the goal line cost Jalen Hurts a potential touchdown last week, but the “Brotherly Shove” play could reappear on Monday night.
• The Eagles’ offense, despite its Week 1 issues, showed the potential to score even more points. Atlanta will face a less aggressive pass rush, which could help them find rhythm offensively.

Falcons vs. Eagles Odds and Analysis

Opening Odds:

• Spread: Atlanta +6 (-110) | Philadelphia -6 (-110)
• Moneyline: Atlanta +180 | Philadelphia -225
• Over/Under: 48.5 points (-110)

Odds Movement:

The early lines over the summer set the Eagles as 3.5-point home favorites. After Week 1, the spread opened at Eagles -6 and briefly reached -6.5 before settling back to -5.5 due to the absence of key WR A.J. Brown. Currently, 76% of picks are favoring the Eagles to cover.

The Over/Under initially set at 48.5 points was quickly bet down to 46.5, driven by concerns about Cousins’ health and Brown’s injury status.

Expect a competitive game as both teams look to find their rhythm on offense. However, keep an eye on Bijan Robinson, who is likely to make a significant impact on the ground against a vulnerable Eagles run defense. His ability to break through Philadelphia’s front line could be the deciding factor in this matchup.