Trump’s 2028 Odds Surge After Iran Strike and Global Unrest Shake Betting Markets

Over the past 48 hours, President Donald Trump deployed airstrikes against Iran, saw a major U.S. military base attacked and announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran had been reached. 

Some presidents don’t see that much action in an entire administration. 

Action is also occurring in the betting markets. Yesterday, we told you about the swing in Senate control odds after Lisa Murkowski hinted at switching sides, and now we have an update for the 2028 General Election.

BetOnline.ag, which is one of the only gambling platforms to offer Donald Trump Sr. in its 2028 President markets, reports that wagers have been coming in on Trump over the past 48 hours, which has prompted a shift in the odds. 

“A potential world war, highly likely ongoing global instability, mass protests and division across USA…all these make it likelier that a state of emergency could be called, or that Trump could use the unique circumstances to consolidate power,” BetOnline Political Oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said. 

Trump’s odds across three markets have been shortened based on action and expectation. Here are the changes in odds since the Iran attack:

2028 Presidential Election

– Trump’s odds have gone from 10/1 to 6/1, which gives him the second-best chance behind J.D. Vance (5/2 odds)

2028 Republican Nominee

– Trump’s odds have gone from 6/1 to 7/2, which gives him the second-best chance behind J.D. Vance (6/5 odds)

2028 Iowa Caucus Ballot Inclusion

– Trump’s odds have gone from 5/1 to 3/1

Here are the latest 2028 Election and GOP nominee odds for any person with 50/1 odds or better:

2028 President

J.D. Vance                     5/2

Donald Trump Sr.          6/1

Gavin Newsom              8/1

A. Ocasio-Cortez           14/1

Josh Shapiro                 14/1

Kamala Harris               18/1

J.B. Pritzker                   20/1

Marco Rubio                 20/1

Pete Buttigieg               20/1

Gretchen Whitmer        28/1

Andy Beshear               33/1

Michelle Obama            33/1

Wes Moore                   33/1

Cory Booker                  40/1

Donald Trump Jr.          40/1

Kristi Noem                   40/1

Tim Walz                      40/1

Barack Obama              50/1

Glenn Youngkin             50/1

Mark Cuban                  50/1

Mark Kelly                    50/1

Nikki Haley                   50/1

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.    50/1

Ron DeSantis                50/1

2028 Republican Nominee

J.D. Vance                     6/5

Donald Trump Sr.          7/2

Marco Rubio                 12/1

Kristi Noem                   20/1

Ron DeSantis                20/1

Donald Trump Jr.          25/1

Glenn Youngkin             25/1

Ivanka Trump                25/1

Brian Kemp                   28/1

Nikki Haley                   28/1

Robert F Kennedy Jr.     28/1

Tom Cotton                  28/1

Vivek Ramaswamy        33/1

Dan Crenshaw              40/1

Tulsi Gabbard               40/1

Doug Burgum               50/1

Elise Stefanik                50/1

2028 Presidential Election odds can be seen here: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/president

Republican nominee odds are here: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/republican-nominee