NFL Betting Picks: Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots

The New England Patriots might ‘look’ better than they really are. They enter this game at 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS but they sure haven’t been dominant this season. They are a perfect 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS at home but that has more to do with fortuitous scheduling than any sort of formidable advantage there. To be fair, the Patriots’ ATS records over the past few seasons are very impressive—over the last three seasons they’re 35-14 ATS overall, 34-14 ATS as a favorite and 18-7 ATS at home. They’re 8-2 ATS as a home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points, 12-2 ATS off a divisional game and 10-2 ATS off a divisional win. Winning teams have found them a ‘tough out’ and the Patriots are 16-6 ATS against winning teams overall and 10-3 ATS against winning teams in the second half of the season.

The problem with the Patriots’ run of pointspread success is that even a neophyte handicapper can tell you that when it concerns ATS performance that ‘what goes up must come down’. Any team that covers at a 70%+ clip as the Pats have done of the last three season will come with a ‘premium’ attached to them at the betting window. This is particularly true since the Patriots have been the biggest ‘public’ team in the NFL for well over a decade now. New England finishes this season with three divisional games (at Miami, home against Buffalo and the NY Jets) and a big 12/16 matchup on the road against AFC North leading Pittsburgh. That makes this outlier non-conference game something of an afterthought for Tom Brady and company.

Minnesota is a very dangerous team to look past. They’ve quietly been improving throughout the season and particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings limited the Green Bay Packers to 254 yards last Sunday night. With that performance they have allowed an average of 258 yards per game in their last six contests. Considering that the top total defense in the league (Baltimore) gives up 295.4 yards per game these numbers become all the more impressive. Minnesota also has 36 sacks which ties them for third in the league. The Vikings defense is vastly superior to New England’s. The Patriots are 25th in passing yards against (269.7) and 22nd in total defense (377.5).

The Vikings are not only a team that has shown improvement all season but one that in recent years has always performed well down the stretch and enters this matchup on a 19-6-1 run against the pointspread in December games. They’re also on a 7-3 ATS run against AFC opponents and are looking up at the Chicago Bears in the NFC North. There’s no ‘coasting’ for Minnesota and that’s bad news for New England Patriots backers in this game.

BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS +4.5 OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS