College Basketball Betting’s Most Profitable Teams Through December 10, 2018

No matter the sport it’s important to understand team valuation. More specifically, it’s essential to know which teams are ‘profitable’ and which teams are ‘money losers’. This information has some intrinsic value but is most useful in isolating teams that are overvalued and undervalued relative to the pointspread. In this article we’ll look at the most profitable college basketball betting teams as of December 10, 2018.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL MONEYMAKERS

SAMFORD BULLDOGS (+9 UNITS)

Not to be confused with the better known school in Palo Alto, California. Samford University bills itself as ‘Alabama’s top ranked private university’ and is located in the suburbs of Birmingham. The Samford Bulldogs play in the Southern Conference where they’re 8-2 SU/9-0 ATS. They’ve taken care of business against overmatched sides like Kennesaw State (won 74-60 as -7.5 point favorites) and have been competitive against superior competition like Ohio State (covered as +21 point dogs) and Belmont (covered as +8 point underdogs). Could be worth a look in an upcoming game on December 19 against #3 ranked Tennessee. Due to their impressive pointspread run out of conference they could be overvalued when the Southern Conference season begins. Keep in mind that this is a team that went 10-22 overall last year and 6-12 in SoCon play. They’re better this year than last but not sure if they’ve got the pedigree to keep covering numbers at a profitable rate.

HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS (+6.9 UNITS)

Holy Cross is a Jesuit run private liberal arts college in Worcester, Massachusetts. Founded in 1843, they’re the oldest Catholic college in New England and among the oldest in the United States. Holy Cross has a long and deep basketball tradition. Boston Celtics’ legends Bob Cousy and Tom Heinsohn attended Holy Cross and the Crusaders won the NCAA tournament in 1947 and the NIT in 1954. At that time, the NIT was considered to be at least as prestigious as the NCAA tournament if not more so. This year, they’re just 6-4 SU but 8-1 ATS as they prepare for the Patriot League Conference regular season. They’ve covered in double digit losses at Michigan (losing by 19 as +21 underdogs) and Providence (losing by 9 as +15 underdogs). Quite a few similarities between Holy Cross and Samford—both are coming off of losing seasons (the Crusaders went 12-19 last year including 8-10 in conference) and both will likely be overvalued once conference play begins. Coming off a 16 point loss to a mediocre Rhode Island team.

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY VAQUEROS (+6.9 UNITS)

If you see a team abbreviated ‘UTRGV’ on a betting board and don’t have a clue who they are or where they play we’re here to help. The University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley opened for business in 2015 following the consolidation of University of Texas–Pan American, University of Texas at Brownsville/Texas Southmost College and UT Regional Academic Health Center – Harlingen. Today, UTRGV has over 27,000 mostly undergraduate students and is one of the largest schools in the country to have a majority Hispanic student body with 80% under that demographic designation. Texas-Pan American brings the most storied basketball tradition to the new institution having won the NAIA title in 1963. As was the case with our previous two entrants on this list UTRGV might be a ‘go against’ once WAC play starts. Vaqueros are 7-4 SU/8-1-1 ATS but here’s a disturbing observation: their pointspread loss and push came when they stepped up in class against Georgia Tech (lost by 28 as +17.5 dogs) and Oklahoma (pushed as +15 dogs).

EAST TENNESSEE STATE BUCCANEERS (+6.9 UNITS)

East Tennessee State plays in the Southern Conference and had a pretty good team last year. The 2017 vintage Buccaneers went 25-9 overall and 14-4 in SoCon play. This year so far they’re 8-3 SU/8-1 ATS. Worth noting that they’re already 0-1 SU/ATS in conference having lost 79-62 at Wofford as +4.5 underdogs. They’ve got a tricky schedule coming up with non-conference games at Illinois and against Wyoming in El Paso, TX. The altitude in El Paso (3,740′) should really favor Wyoming in that game. They finish the year with a game against Furman on December 29 and start 2019 with a game against previously mentioned Samford on January 3. I’d look to play against ETSU when they face any of the good SoCon schools including Samford, Furman, Wofford, Mercer and UNC-Greensboro.

Tomorrow we’ll head to the bottom of the barrel and look at the biggest money losers in college basketball.