College Basketball Betting’s Biggest Money Losers Through December 10, 2018

No matter the sport it’s important to understand team valuation. More specifically, it’s essential to know which teams are ‘profitable’ and which teams are ‘money losers’. This information has some intrinsic value but is most useful in isolating teams that are overvalued and undervalued relative to the pointspread. We covered the most profitable teams in college basketball yesterday and in this article we’ll look at the least profitable college basketball betting teams as of December 10, 2018. When you’re talking pointspread losers in college basketball there are two types of teams—bad teams and overvalued teams. In the long term, ‘overvalued’ teams with winning SU records are more interesting. Not to over simplify this dynamic, but today’s overvalued money burning loser is tomorrow’s undervalued pointspread darling.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL MONEY LOSERS

IONA GAELS (-8.8 UNITS)

Iona wasn’t a bad team at all last season finishing with an overall record of 20-13 overall and 11-7 in the MAAC. They’ve won three straight MAAC conference tournaments which means they’ve appeared in the NCAA tournament for the past three years. They don’t have much to show for it other than double digit first round losses to Iowa State, Oregon and Duke but at they’re level this is a solid basketball program. This year, however, they’re off to a bad start. The Gaels are 2-6 SU/0-8 ATS but they could be due for a turnaround, at least in the point spread results. They’ve got two ATS losses by one point and two more by ½ point. Best case scenario from a betting standpoint—the Gaels take their lumps during non-conference play and enter the MAAC schedule with a poor record against the spread. No reason that they can’t be competitive in conference and it’ll be a good chance to get a decent team at a value price.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE BLUE RAIDERS (-8.8 UNITS)

Middle Tennessee State plays in Conference USA and they’re usually a decent team. They appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2013, 2016 and 2017 and are most notable for beating Michigan State in 2016. The victory over the Spartans was only the eighth by a #15 seed against a #2 seed. Last year, the Blue Raiders won the CUSA regular season title but lost in the conference tournament. Overall, MTSU went 24-7 and 16-2 in conference. The problem with success like this is that expectations are high and with them come inflated pointspreads. MTSU is 3-7 SU/0-8 ATS and while they don’t have quite as many ‘near miss’ non-covers as Iona there’s no reason they can’t be competitive as a pointspread investment once conference play begins.

CLEMSON TIGERS (-7.8 UNITS)

Year in and year old Clemson brings a decent basketball team to the table. They might not be at the level of ACC giants like Duke and North Carolina but they’re competitive on most nights. Last year, the Tigers finished 23-9 overall with a record of 11-7 in the ACC. This year, they’re 6-3 overall but just 1-8 against the spread. Their only ATS cover of the year came on November 20 when they beat Georgia 64-49 as -6 point home favorites. They started the year by winning but failing to cover four games as double digit chalk against The Citadel (won by 20 as -28 favorites), NC Central (won by 20 as -26 favorites), Sam Houston State (won by 15 as -24 favorites) and Akron (won by 3 as -12.5 favorites). They’ve lost twice outright as favorites and it could be that this year’s team just isn’t as good as last year’s. I’m going to look for opportunities to step in against Clemson as they finish out of conference play against Radford (12/15), Charleston Southern (12/18) and Lipscomb (12/30). They’ve also got a game in Columbia against arch rival South Carolina on 12/22 but unlike the three previously mentioned teams they should have plenty of focus against the Gamecocks.

DELAWARE STATE HORNETS (-7.7 UNITS)

Delaware State is easily the worst team on this list and one of the worst in college basketball. Last year they were 4-28 SU/2-14 in MEAC conference play. Their only two out of conference wins came against lower division teams. They actually regressed last year from 2016 when they went 10-22 SU/7-9 in conference. It could be even more regression this year as the team enters mid December at 2-8 SU/0-7 ATS. Their only two wins are against lower division, non-board teams (St. Elizabeth and Cairn) and they’ve been underdogs of +13 or more in every one of their ‘on the board’ matchups. They’ve played a reasonably ambitious out of conference schedule and have losses of 25, 42, 29, 16, 28, 28, and 29. Of course, as these big losses mount up the pointspreads against Delaware State will inflate but there’s only one problem—there’s no guarantee that this Hornets team will stay inside even these ‘shaded’ numbers. Tough team to play against as prices are too high and they don’t get opponents’ interest up yet a team that I can’t recommend playing on at this point.