Boston College Takes On Boise State In First Responder Bowl

After taking a couple of days off for a Christmas Break the college football bowl season continues on December 26 with three games. At the top of the betting board is the First Responder Bowl to be played at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The matchup here is a strange though potentially entertaining one between ACC entrant Boston College and Mountain West Conference powerhouse Boise State. The Eagles enter this game with a record of 7-5 (7-4-1 ATS) but finished their regular season on an 0-3 SU/ATS run. The Broncos are 10-3 SU/8-5 ATS and enter this game off a disappointing overtime loss to Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game.

Let me preface this handicap with the observation that no one has been a bigger Boise State fanboy over the past decade plus than me. I was singing the praises of the Broncos’ football program when no one outside of the Mountain Time Zone even knew that they played on a blue field. Their location away from the coastal media centers and college football’s elite means that as a program they still don’t get the respect they deserve. For that reason, they’re often undervalued when they play a ‘non traditional’ opponent in a bowl game or as part of their non conference schedule.

That being said, Boise State has no business being favored in this game. Boston College may have struggled down the stretch but that was more of a function of injuries and not substandard play. The Eagles’ star running back A.J. Dillon was recovering from an ankle injury and starting quarterback Anthony Brown was trying to come back from an abdominal injury. Both are injuries that really need time to heal completely and a month out from the Eagles’ regular season finale against Syracuse both will likely be at or close to 100%.

With the Eagles’ offensive catalysts likely to be fully recovered from their injuries that makes the relative strength of schedule very significant. Facing a tough schedule isn’t always the upside that armchair handicappers think it is. It doesn’t always make a team ‘battle tested’–sometimes it just makes a team physically and mentally beat down. That won’t be the case with Boston College. There’s just no comparison between the level of opposition here. Boise State’s biggest ‘name’ game was at Oklahoma State where they lost by 23 as -1 point favorites. They split a pair of games with a decent Fresno State team and beat a talented Utah State team in conference play.

Now compare that with the names on Boston College’s schedule. Throw out the Eagles’ first two games against overmatched Massachusetts and Holy Cross and BC was double digit favorites only twice this year. That was against flat lining Louisville and Temple but neither of these schools are basket case football programs. Their stretch run was brutal, closing the season with games at home against Miami, Clemson and Syracuse and on the road against Virginia Tech and Florida State.

One important thing to remember when handicapping a team that faced a weak schedule is that they often look better statistically than they really are. Boise State’s defense is a good case in point. They rank #39 in FBS total defense but that is definitely a function of who they played. They certainly didn’t face an offensive line anywhere near as good as Boston College’s this year. Boise State’s Brett Rypien is certainly a better quarterback than BC’s Anthony Brown but you can make a compelling case that the Eagles have the edge at every other position on both sides of the ball.

Boston College should be able to establish a power rushing game and control this matchup with their superior size and athleticism. Rypien’s talent and the overall high skill level of the Boise State offense could hit for some quick strike touchdowns but just can’t pass up getting what is likely the better team as a short underdog.

BET BOSTON COLLEGE +2.5 OVER BOISE STATE