New England Patriots Dare Critics To ‘Bet Against Us’ In AFC Title Game Against Kansas City Chiefs

Once his football career is over wide receiver Julian Edelman might have a second career in marketing. Noting that his New England Patriots are +3 NFL betting underdogs against the Chiefs at Kansas City he’s co-opted the taunt ‘bet against us’ as something of a catch phrase. Edelman has been using the hashtag #BETAGAINSTUS and has been plugging t-shirts featuring a silhouette of the Patriots’ logo with the ‘Bet Against Us’ phrase underneath.

With all due respect to Mr. Edelman, we’re going to do just that. To be fair, seeing the Patriots as an underdog of any type is rare—and particularly with Tom Brady at quarterback. The last time that a New England team took points with Brady under center was in Week 2 of the 2015 season against the Buffalo Bills. The last time the Patriots were an underdog during the NFL playoffs was in January 2014 when they lost to the Denver Broncos on the road. We’re well aware of the fact that the Patriots are making their eighth straight AFC Championship game appearance and trying to go to the Super Bowl for the third straight year (and fourth in five years).

Earlier in the week, Tom Brady had quipped that “everybody thinks we suck and can’t win any games” but he was a bit more reserved when asked about the Patriots’ underdog status:

“Doesn’t change much for us. It shows you, kind of, what people would think of what our chances are. That is about it.”

Of course, it’s one thing to co-opt the underdog status as a locker room rallying cry but another thing entirely to let Edelman’s taunt influence your handicapping decisions. Not to mention the fact that while Brady has a resume that is the envy of every other quarterback he’s probably not the guy you want to call if you need a little bit of pointspread analysis. That’s my job—and if anything the Patriots’ status as a +3 point road favorite might actually overrate New England’s power rating. Most handicappers put the ‘standard’ NFL home field advantage at three points. This would mean that based on this three point advantage for Kansas City at home the Chiefs and Patriots would be a ‘pick’em’ on a neutral field. To that, they’d have to have the same base power rating and my numbers suggest otherwise. So too do the numbers of many other top handicappers and NFL observers.

The primary case against the Patriots is focused on their struggles this year away from Gillette Stadium. New England has been a monster on their home field for several years now. This season including the playoffs they’re 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS at home. Throw in last season, and they’re on a 16-0 SU/13-3 ATS run at home with a winning margin of approximately 15 points per game. Over the past three seasons they’ve got some glossy road numbers as well going 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS. Their track record of success away from home makes this year’s substandard performance more alarming. In the previous two seasons the Patriots were 15-1 SU/13-3 ATS on the road. This year they’re 3-5 SU/ATS away from their home stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Every road loss came to a team that didn’t make the playoffs this season.

Maybe Tom Brady can pull of a miracle in Kansas City but Julian Edelman’s advice to the contrary we won’t be betting on him to do so. This season, the Patriots averaged a paltry 21.6 points per game on the road—that’s the lowest PPG output of Brady’s career and the #18 road PPG total in the NFL. The Patriots also have one of only two double digit home PPG vs. road PPG differentials in the National Football league. New England scored an average of 12.2 fewer PPG on the road than at home. That’s the second worst in the NFL ahead of only the Oakland Raiders (13.4 home v. road scoring differential).

BET KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS