NFC Championship Features Rematch Between Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints

Two teams one win away from the Super Bowl. For the Rams, its been awhile since their last visit—2004 to be specific when the St. Louis Rams lost to the New England Patriots as the Belichick/Brady Era got underway. For the Los Angeles Rams, it’s been even longer dating back to 1980 when the team lost a de facto home game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XIV. The Rams won the only Super Bowl in franchise history in St. Louis (Super Bowl XXXIV in 2000) but a win here would be the team’s first representing the ‘City of the Angels’. The Saints made their only trip to the Super Bowl in 2009 and emerged victorious by beating the Indianapolis Colts at Miami’s Sun Life Stadium.

This game bears a lot of similarities to the New England/Kansas City AFC Championship matchup which we discussed yesterday. The most obvious similarity is the pointspread with the home team installed as a -3 NFL playoff betting favorite. In the Pats/Chiefs analysis we dissected this number and it represents the same thing here—the linesmaker is reflecting public perception that these teams are equal on a neutral field. With the standard three point home field advantage in the NFL that gives us the -3 price. As was the case yesterday, we’re not so sure that these teams are qualitatively identical on a neutral field but in this instance we’re looking at the underdog.

To be sure, New Orleans has been an excellent home field investment during the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era going 6-0 SU. Brees has been a monster in those games with a 14 to 2 TD to INT ratio and an average of 300+ yards passing per contest. New Orleans put up impressive offensive numbers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season as well particularly toward the end of the year. The Saints put up 40+ PPG in five of their last six home games with the exception being the feisty Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round. Overall, New Orleans finished top five in both passing and rushing.

So why do we want to back the Rams here? There’s the very simple but historically effective angle of betting against the previous game loser in a same year rematch. It’s even stronger when the team is getting points and stronger still when there’s elite level coaches involved. Furthermore, the edge that the speedy Saints have over many teams on the Superdome turf doesn’t exist in this matchup. True, Jared Goff hasn’t played well (or much for that matter) in bad weather but this game is indoors in climate controlled comfort.

Even so, for some reason the public has a mistaken perception that the Rams can’t play and win on the road. This is probably due to their miserable performance in their highest profile road game of the year where they were dismantled by the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in a 15-6 loss. Overall, however, Los Angeles was 6-2 SU on the road. The Rams also lost to the Saints here in Week 9. The public will look at the game log and see a 45-35 New Orleans win but they won’t remember that the game was tied 35-35 until the late stages of the fourth quarter. A Will Lutz field goal put the Saints up by three and a late bomb to Michael Thomas provided another touchdown and the final margin.

The more impressive component of the previous LA vs. NO matchup was the Rams’ poise in coming back from a 17 point deficit to get into a position to challenge for the win. Los Angeles trailed 35-14 with under 30 seconds left in the first half. Many teams with young quarterbacks would have thrown in the towel but the Rams fought hard to get back in the game on both sides of the ball. The game was their for Los Angeles to win but they didn’t seal the deal and it’s precisely this type of outcome that wants us to back the Rams and head coach Sean McVay. McVay is already among the smartest football minds in the league and you can be sure that he’s going to ‘fix what was broke’ the first time around. We’ll gladly take the Rams plus the points in their first spot as an underdog this season.

BET LOS ANGELES RAMS +3 OVER NEW ORLEANS SAINTS