Super Bowl Total Suggests That Bettors Expect Plenty Offensive Fireworks

While the Super Bowl LIII betting line has moved to reflect the public’s pro Patriots sentiment the game total has shown little if any movement since the open. Virtually every sportsbook on the planet now has the over/under on the February 3 matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams at either 58 or 57.5.

At either price, this year’s Super Bowl total is currently the highest in history. Super Bowl LI (2017) in Houston, Texas offered a matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. The Pats were a -3 point favorite and the total was set at 57. The game was notable for being the first overtime played in Super Bowl history and was eventually won by the Patriots 34-28 giving New England the cover and cashing tickets on the ‘Over’ with 62 total points scored. Super Bowl XLIV (2010) in Miami, Florida also had a 57 total as the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts competed for the crown. The Saints won outright as a +5 underdog though the combined 48 points scored resulted in an easy ‘Under’.

The other Super Bowls with a total over 50 were Super Bowl XLVI (2012) between the New York Giants and New England Patriots (Total was 53, game went Under), Super Bowl XLII (2008) also between the Giants and Pats (Total 55, Under), Super Bowl XXXVI (2002) between New England and St. Louis (Total 53, Under), Super Bowl XXXIII (1999) between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons (Total 52.5, Over by ½ point), Super Bowl XXX (1996) between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers (Total 51, Under), Super Bowl XXIX (1995) between the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers (Total 53.5, Over) and Super Bowl XXVIII (1994) between the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills (Total 50.5, Under). The first total over 50 came way back in 1985 as the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins met in Super Bowl XIX. The game had a posted total of 53.5 and went Over by a half point as the Niners prevailed 38-16.

That means there have been 10 Super Bowl games with a 50+ total with 6 Under and 4 Over. Small sample size to be sure but that’s 60% Under in that situation. The Under becomes more compelling when we take a look at the margin by which the Super Bowl games with a total of 50+ went Over or Under:

Margin Of Victory ‘Over’ Super Bowl Total Of 50+: 5, 0.5, 21.5, 0.5

Margin Of Victory ‘Under’ Super Bowl Total Of 50+: 15, 9, 24, 16, 7, 7

Average ‘Over’ Margin of Victory: 6.875 points
Average ‘Under’ Margin of Victory: 13 points

The ‘Under’ position in a Super Bowl with a 50+ total becomes even more compelling when we look at the ‘Over’ results game by game.

–Super Bowl LI (2017) needed overtime to exceed the total. At the end of regulation, the score was tied 28-28 which was ‘Under’ by one point.

–Super Bowl XXXIII (1999) exceeded the total by one half point. A little bit of judicious price shopping could have likely resulted in your ticket going ‘Under’ or at the very least getting a ‘Push’

–Super Bowl XXIX (1995) the only true regulation ‘Over’ in Super Bowl history. The San Francisco 49ers entered the game favored by -18.5 points which is the largest pointspread in Super Bowl history. The game was a cakewalk with Steve Young’s Niners leading 14-7 at the end of the first quarter, 28-10 at halftime and 42-18 at the end of three quarters. The lack of defensive intensity was apparent on both sides of the ball as Steve Young threw for 325 yards, 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

–Super Bowl XIX (1985) another half point ‘Over’. See comments for Super Bowl XXXIII above.

Since we’re looking at the highest Super Bowl total in history this year you should know by now how I’m going to play it. One question I’ve been asked is ‘If the ‘Under’ is the obvious play why hasn’t in moved?’.

The answer—you can expect that it will as ‘sharp’ money comes for the ‘Under’. For recreational players, the position might not be so obvious. This is a matchup of the #2 (Los Angeles) and #4 (New England) scoring offenses in the NFL putting up 32.9 and 27.3 PPG respectively during the 2018 regular season. The media narrative is that there will be a lot of scoring. The public is still unsure about which way to go and thus the ‘smart money’ is in no hurry to get down hoping that there will be an uptick in the number closer to gametime.