Dodgers Favored To Win National League, American League Much More Competitive

It’s not easy trying to set a baseball futures line at any point, but especially this year. No matter the year you’ve got to deal with offseason personnel moves and injuries and then try to project down the road and determine who will be on top of the table after a 162 game season. Then there’s the matter of actually winning the American League and National League pennant and *then* winning the World Series. This year is even more difficult due to one of the weakest free agent markets in recent memory.

So what’s up with the free agent market? Explaining what is happening is simple. Explaining why it’s happening isn’t. What is happening is that teams are very hesitant to back up the Brinks truck and sign high priced superstar free agents. A number of the biggest stars in the sport remain unsigned including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel. For now, they’re standing firm saying they won’t play for what they think they’re worth but more than likely they’ll rethink this stance as the season draws closer. A superstar player would ultimately prefer to sign a one year contract for less than what he thinks he’s worth than go a full year without getting a paycheck.

Why this is happening is difficult to pinpoint. There are a number of theories with varying degrees of validity. Some players think its due to collusion among team owners but there is scant evidence to validate this accusation. It could be related to this specific class of free agents and their market value. Long story short, they might collectively be demanding more money than owners think they’re worth. It could be a more seismic change in the nature of the game itself. Teams are now realizing that they can win as many games by playing young prospects in key positions than they could with big dollar stars. The players are realizing that the game is changing but are trying to make the argument that owners need to scratch out a big check for their services to get fans in the ballpark. Their argument is that ‘fans pay to see superstars’. There might be some truth to that, but its more likely that a winning team is the more influential catalyst of fan support. The most likely scenario about the cause of the weak free agent market is ‘All of the Above’.

All of this notwithstanding, there are some familiar names atop the betting board. The defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox are favored to repeat as American League pennant winners again this year. Based on the numbers, however, oddsmakers don’t expect it to be easy. In fact, there’s a three way tie atop the betting table between the Red Sox, New York Yankees and Houston Astros with all three teams priced at +600 to win the American League.

In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the sole favorite at +350 to win the pennant and return to the World Series. Los Angeles would definitely like to return to the World Series but hope for a better outcome than they experienced last year when they were dominated by the Boston Red Sox in five games. Also priced at single digit odds are the Chicago Cubs (+500), Philadelphia Phillies (+600), Milwaukee Brewers (+650), Atlanta Braves (+700), St. Louis Cardinals (+800), Washington Nationals (+900) and Colorado Rockies (+1000).