Virginia Battles Texas Tech For NCAA Hoops Crown

Only one game on the sports betting board for Monday night but it’s a big one. The college basketball national title is on the line as the University of Virginia takes on Texas Tech at the US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. To say that a defensive battle is anticipated between these two teams is an understatement. The NCAA championship game betting odds have Virginia installed as a -1.5 point favorite with the total set at 118. The low pointspread is indicative of the tight battle expected between the Cavaliers and the Red Raiders and the 118 total is the lowest on any NCAA Championship Game in the past twenty years.

Even at 118 the total might not be low enough as these are two of the best defensive squads in college basketball. Virginia ranks as the best scoring defense in college hoops at 55.5 PPG against. Texas Tech is #3 allowing just 58.8 PPG against. In defensive field goal percentage, Texas Tech holds foes to just 36.9% shooting which is #2 in the country. Virginia is right behind at #5 with a 38.4% opponent FG percentage. Average scoring margin is a similar story–Virginia is #3 at 15.9 PPG with Texas Tech at #7 with a 13.9 PPG margin. Not surprisingly, the two teams rank in the top ten in three point defense as well with Virginia at #4 (28.7%) and Texas Tech at #10 (29.3%). Virginia may have a slight edge at taking care of the basketball on offense–UVA is #1 in the nation in turnovers per game (8.9) although Texas Tech isn’t bad turning the ball over 12.1 times per game.

Texas Tech excels in the points per possession metric. On the road to the final four, the Red Raiders held opponents to 0.85 points per possession which is essentially identical to their season points per possession of 0.84. Take a look at Texas Tech’s NCAA tournament opponents–the Red Raiders held Northern Kentucky to 22 points under their season scoring average. Buffalo was held to 30 fewer, Michigan 26 fewer, Gonzaga 19.5 fewer. Michigan State averaged 78.3 PPG on the season but Texas Tech held them to 51 which is 27.3 points under their average. This suggests that the Red Raiders are not only a very nasty defensive side but that they have the ability to force tempo and style of play on their opponents. It’s one thing to do that to overmatched foes like Buffalo, another thing entirely to do that to teams like Gonzaga and Michigan State. The $64,000 question is this–does the ability to force tempo matter against a team that wants to play at the same tempo you do? Probably not.

The more you dig into this matchup the more it looks like a toss up. Texas Tech is 31-6 SU/20-16-1 ATS on the year. Virginia is 34-3 SU/25-12 ATS. Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 while UVA is 5-5 ATS but that’s not surprising given the high public profile of Virginia and the ACC. In fact, that’s probably the only reason this game isn’t a ‘pick’ meaning that the Red Raiders are the ‘value side’ albeit not by much. Objectively speaking, ATS records are pretty irrelevant in what could very well be a ‘pick’ by game time.

It’s tough to make a case that one side is significantly superior to the other. For that reason, the best side play is to take Texas Tech plus the points. The games leading up to the National Championship have been ridiculously competitive. All four Elite Eight games went down to the final possession as did the Virginia/Auburn Final Four game. UVA got a favorable foul call on a desperation three point heave at the buzzer or else we’d be talking about the Auburn vs. Texas Tech matchup. As far as the low total, given the defensive excellence of these two teams and the expected tempo of the game there’s no other way to go but ‘Under’. My projected final total is 99. It’ll be a tight, low scoring affair with the primary risk to the ‘Under’ being the prospect of overtime.

BET TEXAS TECH +1.5 OVER VIRGINIA
BET TEXAS TECH/VIRGINIA UNDER 118