AL Series of the Week: Red Sox @ Yankees

Nothing says summer like a June 1st weekend series between two fierce, long-standing division rivals. And who better to ring in the dog days of MLB summer than two titans of professional sporting divisional unpleasantry: the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.

The AL East has been contentious so far in the first two months of the 2019 season (unless you’re Baltimore or Toronto). For the most part, New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay have been on pretty even footing. Even now, with Boston sitting six-and-a-half games behind New York, it looks like the rivalry in the ever-competitive AL East is just getting starting.

Which brings us to this weekend’s four-game series between these two older-than-any-living-person ball clubs. On the one hand, the Yankees have the advantage of momentum and recently took sole possession of the top spot in the division. On the other hand, Boston’s excellent offence can give just about any defence a run for its money.

When it comes to these two, it always comes down to the odds. What are the odds that Boston can take the series? (Not great) Can the Yankees sweep? (Yes, but they probably won’t) Will it rain? (50% Thursday, 40% Sunday) Will the benches clear? (Non-zero probability)

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Well, let’s break it down. At this moment, bookmakers have the odds of Boston winning it all at +1200, while the Yankees are sitting at a cool +500. Compare that to the projections at the beginning of the season: Boston +700, New York +800.

By those numbers, it’s pretty clear that New York is beginning to pull away. And yet the Red Sox are still in a very competitive position with only six teams in all of the Big Leagues who are sitting at better odds to win the World Series.

So these four games could either get Boston right back in the running, or help New York pull away even more. A lot is on the line for both teams, despite being only just about a third of the way into the season.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

As is often the case in the MLB, there is a very strong chance that this series will come down to pitching matchups. If you’re looking to bet against the Red Sox, you’ll have some opportunities. The whole Red Sox starting rotation is struggling to really get it together this season, with veterans Rick Porcello and David Price both sitting at a lukewarm .500 in the W/L column.

But it’s Chris Sale who’s been particularly underwhelming, putting up just one win on the season so far, next to six loses. These pitching woes are certainly contributing to Boston’s flagging record, despite a genuinely impressive offense.

Sale is probable to get the start in the series opener on Thursday, so that might be a good time to bet against the Red Sox. But if you’re looking to put some money on Boston instead, keep an eye out to see if Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start (which haven’t been announced yet). His solid .625 W/L on the season might be the upset you’re looking for.

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