NFL Over/Under Win Totals Preview: NFC South

We’ll wrap up our NFL division win totals preview with the NFC South. The expectation is that it’ll be more of the same this year–the New Orleans Saints and everybody else. In 2018, the Saints went 13-3 and completely dominated the NFC South race beating the two ‘runners up’ Atlanta and Carolina by a whopping 6 games. The NFL betting odds have New Orleans set as a -160 favorite to repeat as division champs this year.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: New Orleans is gunning for their third straight NFC South title. Over the past two seasons, they’ve got a combined record of 24-8, or an average of 12-4 per year for those of you scoring at home. Drew Brees is coming off a career high 115.7 QB rating and has nasty weapons all around him including wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. Center Max Unger retired and backup running back Mark Ingram is now with the Ravens. The good news for New Orleans is that there doesn’t look to be much drop off at either position with the Saints adding Nick Easton at center and Latavius Murray at RB. They also took 6’4″ 300 pound OL Erik McCoy out of Texas A&M with their first pick in the draft. The offense is one of the best in the league but the defense is merely adequate, ranking #14 in both total defense and scoring defense a year ago. New Orleans is still the team to beat, but the O/U win total is a concern. Hard to see them dropping off too much but at the same time they’d need a record of 11-5 or better to cash the ‘Over’. That might be a tough task in what should be an improved division but that’s how we’ll lean.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OVER 10 WINS +100

CAROLINA PANTHERS: The rest of the NFC South is tough to figure starting with the Carolina Panthers. Last year, Carolina opened with six wins in their first eight games but then lost 7 straight. Cam Newton was having shoulder issues but he says he’s regained full strength in his arm. Based on what he’s shown in training camp, he definitely looks stronger and completed a 50 yard pass to Curtis Samuel in Tuesday practice. Samuel is ridiculously fast and could end up being Newton’s favorite target. Carolina drafted QB Will Grier out of West Virginia but until he gets some experience he’ll be a huge dropoff should Newton be injured. Panthers acquired free agent center Matt Paradis and re-signed All Pro left guard Daryl Williams (missed most of last year due to injury). Paradis and the return of Williams should make the OL better. On the defensive side of the ball, Carolina had fewer sacks than any team in the NFL. Overall, they were decidedly mediocre ranking #15 in total defense and #19 in scoring defense. Ron Rivera could be on the hot seat if the team doesn’t start well. As bad as things went last year–and despite a 7 game losing streak–Carolina finished 7-9. Newton’s health is key but they should improve at least slightly this year.

CAROLINA PANTHERS OVER 8 WINS -130 (BEST BET)

ATLANTA FALCONS: The Falcons finished last year tied with the Panthers at 7-9 and like Carolina they were done in by injuries. Quarterback Matt Ryan has ridiculous array of playmakers around him including RB Devotna Freeman, WRs Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley and All Pro tight end Austin Hooper. Atlanta drafted to beef up the offensive line taking Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom but McGary is out with no timetable for a return after a ‘minimally invasive heart procedure’. Defense should be better this year with Keanu Neal and Deion Jones healthy. If the defense regains form and the offensive line can protect Ryan the Falcons could be in contention. If not, like Carolina they could be a disaster. The bar is set a little higher for the Falcons than for the Panthers but the prognosis is the same–just staying healthy will improve the team enough to make the ‘Over’ work. Best case scenario, the offense could be downright lethal.

ATLANTA FALCONS OVER 8.5 WINS -110 (BEST BET)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: I like Bruce Arians as a coach but he’s got a tough job ahead trying to turn around the Bucs. His specialty is developing quarterbacks but he might have met his match in Jameis Winston. Winston is in the final year of his contract and there are serious questions about his ability to be a franchise QB. Blaine Gabbert is a capable backup but not exactly a guy capable of turning around a franchise. Todd Bowles is the new defensive coordinator and while with the NY Jets presided over one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The problem is that neither coach has the personnel they need. The offense lost DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries–their two best wide receivers. The defense lost linebacker Kwon Alexander–their best player. The Bucs used their first pick to take Devin White out of LSU to replace Alexander but it’s asking a lot of even the most talented to replace an All Pro linebacker. Bucs did pick up veteran safety Darian Stewart as a free agent earlier this week. Tampa Bay had the second worst scoring defense in the league last year. Unless Winston makes a phenomenal turnaround the reality is that Tampa Bay downgraded on both sides of the ball. That’s bad news for a team that went 5-11 last year.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 6.5 WINS -120 (BEST BET)

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