Betting Odds Favor Jay Gruden, Pat Shurmur To Be First NFL Head Coach Fired In 2019 Season

There are a myriad of NFL prop betting odds on the betting board covering games, teams and players. There are also odds on the performance of head coaches both good and bad. You can bet on which coach will have an outstanding season and be named the AP Coach of the Year but we’re going to focus on the other extreme–the first coach to be fired or resign. Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is the +450 top choice in this market but in our view he’s a ‘false favorite’. In fact, there’s a good chance that the Redskins will show some improvement this season. Even if they don’t he can use the mea culpa that he did the best he could with starting quarterback Alex Smith out for the year. Those two factors mean that there’s a strong chance that Gruden will last until the regular season if not be retained for next year.

Instead, we’re going to look for worse coaches in worse situations at better prices:

FIRST COACH TO BE FIRED OR RESIGN 2019 NFL SEASON

PAT SHURMUR/NEW YORK GIANTS: In our view, Shurmur should be the top choice in this market. Of course, he is the #2 choice at +700 so it’s not like he’s ‘flying under the radar’. There’s nothing working in Shurmur’s favor here except perhaps the reticence of other NFL coaches to take the job. It’s an easier rationalization to hang on to an underachieving coach when there’s no guarantee that you’ll be able to upgrade.

The ‘inconvenient truth’ is that there’s not much to suggest that Shurmur is the man to orchestrate a rebuild of the Giants. He went 5-11 last year and has less talent on hand to work with this year. His career record as a NFL head coach is 15-34. So far, the Giants’ ‘rebuild’ has been bumbling and poorly executed. They’ve jettisoned some big name veterans which is a necessary part of a team rebuild but they’ve done little to fill the holes left by their departure. In particular, they’ve lost their best player on each side of the ball–wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. and defensive end Olivier Vernon–without a viable plan to replace them.

Shurmur also has a General Manager that might be less competent than he is. Dave Gettleman has made several boneheaded decisions that have seriously undermined the team’s ability to compete both in the short and long term. The Giants have reached the point where the necessity is to spend an entire season gutting the roster, getting bad contracts off the books and otherwise ‘draining the swamp’ to facilitate a rebuild. It’s what Miami is doing this year–it’s painful for everyone involved but it’s the most effective way to change the long term direction of the team. Gettleman is unwilling or unable to commit to making this type of hard decision dooming the Giants to bumble along like an undead football franchise.

Gettleman’s biggest mistake came on draft day when he took Duke quarterback Daniel Jones with the team’s #6 overall pick. Jones might end up being a quality NFL quarterback and the team is hoping that he’s the heir apparent to Eli Manning. The problem is that Jones would have almost certainly been available later in the first round where the Giants also had the #17 pick. The result is that they lost out on a high level talent that could have come in and immediately been a factor on the offensive line or defense. The player selected at #7 was Kentucky linebacker Josh Allen, considered one of the best at the position. Defenses have been rebuilt around talented young linebackers and the Giants missed out simply due to poor draft tactics.

So the Giants at least got the quarterback they wanted but Gettleman’s plan is to not have him play immediately. He’s discussed letting Jones sit and watch the quickly deteriorating Eli Manning for several seasons. Were Manning still in top form that might be a viable strategy but most recent evidence suggests that a team is better off taking their lumps with a talented but raw quarterback prospect than continuing down a dead end road with a veteran on the decline.

Ultimately, Pat Shurmur has a ‘perfect storm’ of a terrible coaching situation. He’s trying to revive a team in need of a rebuild without the right personnel. He’s got a General Manager that doesn’t know what he’s doing. He’s got a demanding fanbase in the most high pressured media market in the league. And above all else, there’s not much to suggest that he’s got the makings of a high level NFL head coach. It’s also a perfect scenario for Gettleman save his own skin after a losing season by throwing Shurmur under the bus.

BET PAT SHURMUR FIRST COACH TO BE FIRED OR RESIGN +700

We’ll continue this ‘First Coach to Be Fired’ preview in an upcoming article focusing on coaches at higher longshot prices that could theoretically be out the door.

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