Tennessee Titans Super Bowl Odds

Teams that have finished .500 or better for three straight seasons usually aren’t massive longshots to win the Super Bowl. That’s where the Tennessee Titans find themselves coming into the 2019 season though. No one seems to believe in the Titans. Although the team has competed for a division title in each of the last three seasons, Tennessee has the longest Super Bowl betting odds of any team in the AFC South.

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV
Tennessee Titans +8000

The AFC South is the most wide-open division in the NFL, so it’s a little surprising that the Titans have such long odds given their recent success. Houston, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville all have major question marks, and Tennessee has a decent shot of winning the division.

Offensive Outlook

For Tennessee to truly be considered a contender, there must be real improvement from Marcus Mariota. Mariota has had one good season (2016) since entering the league, and he has regressed the last two years. He has thrown just one more touchdown than interception over his last two seasons, and the Titans had one of the worst 10 offenses in the NFL in each of those campaigns.

The Titans enter the season with an unproven play caller in new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smith has been an assistant coach for Tennessee since 2011, serving as a tight ends coach since 2014. He is a veritable unknown, and it’s not exactly a good thing that there is continuity since the offense has been so toothless.

Mariota will have some new weapons though. Adam Humphries was signed in free agency to give Mariota a solid underneath receiver to use on third down and in the red zone, but the player everyone is crossing their fingers about is AJ Brown. Some considered Brown the best wide receiver in the draft, but he has not looked great in either training camp or preseason.

Corey Davis has yet to develop into the receiver the Titans were hoping to land with the No. 5 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. He is not a reliable WR1 and there is no indication he will make the leap this season, limiting the potential of this offense.

The strength of the offense will be the running backs once again. Derrick Henry is a hard-nosed runner that can get the tough yards between the tackles, and he averaged nearly five yards per carry last year. He has seen a steady uptick in his volume over the last few seasons, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have his best season yet in 2019. Dion Lewis gives the Titans a reliable receiving option out of the backfield.

Mariota’s health hangs over everything. He has yet to stay healthy for an entire season, so Tennessee brought in Ryan Tannehill this offseason to be a reliable back-up. Tannehill has better career numbers than Mariota, so a Mariota injury probably wouldn’t have much of an impact on this offense.

Defensive Outlook

The Titans’ defense has made this team competitive over the last few years. Tennessee has a defensive-minded coach in Mike Vrabel, and he led the team to its first top ten ranking in total defense since the Jeff Fisher era in his first season in charge.

Jurrell Casey is one of the top interior linemen in the NFL, and he is the star up front. Casey has led the Titans in adjusted value for three of the last five seasons. He is the key to Tennessee’s run defense, so he must stay healthy.

Tennessee has focused on improving its back seven in the last few drafts, and the team is hoping some of its draft picks make the leap this season. Linebackers Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry were taken with the Titans’ top two picks in the 2018 NFL Draft, but neither player made a big impact on last year’s team. If at least one of those two gets better, this defense will become even more dangerous.

Opponents are going to have a hard time passing on the Titans, because this secondary is one of the best in the league. Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler have been solid corners since coming from New England and Adoree Jackson has a ton of speed, but the big playmaker is Kevin Byard. Byard is the best safety in the league and the Titans made hm the highest-paid safety with a massive extension this off-season. His presence turns this unit into a ‘No Fly Zone’.

Season Projection

If you’re going to bet a longshot to win the Super Bowl, Tennessee has the most value. The Titans have a great defense that could be even better this year, and they could win the division if the offense makes mild improvements. Longshots don’t typically have this much talent, but the Titans are close and don’t need a lot to get over the hump. Betting on Tennessee to win the Super Bowl is a significant value play.

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