The third week of the preseason is traditionally the week where teams play their starters the most. Typically, we see teams play their first team for most of the first half, with some teams even opting to use their starters for a series or two in the second half. That makes handicapping Week 3 of the NFL preseason a little easier than the other weeks, since you aren’t as dependent on a fourth-string quarterback making or breaking your bet.
NFL Preseason Betting Odds for Thursday, August 22, 2019
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-135) vs. New York Giants, O/U 41.5
Zac Taylor got his first win as an NFL head coach last week. The Bengals beat Washington 23-13 behind an excellent performance from rookie quarterback Ryan Finley, who was very efficient with the ball. The NC State product completed over 75 percent of his passes for 150 yards and threw two touchdowns without tossing a pick.
As good as Finley has looked, the maligned Daniel Jones has looked even better. Jones is 16-19 with 228 yards and two touchdowns in his two preseason games, and it appears that the Giants are trying to give the young quarterback as much confidence as possible before the start of the season.
Given the amount of derision the media heaped upon Jones and the Giants after the draft, this strategy is quite logical. It also means there is some value in betting on the G-Men.
Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (+100) vs. Washington Redskins, O/U 41.5
Washington has only been able to score 23 points in its two previous preseason games. The quarterback play hasn’t been great with both Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum struggling to move the ball, but the Redskins are still road favorites coming into their game against Atlanta.
That’s because the Falcons are unlikely to play their starters for long. Matt Ryan was banged up a bit by the Jets last week, and since Atlanta played in the Hall of Fame Game, this is the team’s fourth preseason tilt.
The under is the play for me. Don’t expect the Falcons to score much with the starters coming off the field sooner, and the Redskins have yet to prove they can score.
New England Patriots -3.5 (-115) vs. Carolina Panthers, O/U 42.5
Tom Brady did not play in either of the Patriots’ first two preseason games. Bill Belichick has remained mum on whether Brady will play against the Panthers on Thursday, but Brady will likely see some action. He probably won’t play the full first half though, stepping aside early so rookie Jarret Stidham can get some more work.
Cam Newton has not played yet this postseason either, but Ron Rivera told reporters that he hopes to get Newton three or four series of work. He will probably test his arm after undergoing shoulder surgery, and I think that will help Carolina get the cover.
Philadelphia Eagles +4 (+102) vs. Baltimore Ravens, O/U 36
The secret is out on John Harbaugh. Harbaugh has one of the best preseason ATS records of any coach in NFL history, and that has affected the preseason betting odds significantly. He is 35-12 ATS all-time, and the Ravens have covered 15 straight preseason games coming into Thursday’s tilt with the Eagles.
Harbaugh has had Lamar Jackson play multiple series in Baltimore’s first two preseason games, and Jackson could play well into the third quarter here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia appears set to not put Carson Wentz on the field until the regular season, further tilting the scales in the Ravens’ favor.
Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Green Bay Packers, O/U 39.5
For the first time since 2013, the NFL will return to Canada. Oakland and Green Bay will meet at IG Field in Winnipeg on Thursday night, and the weather will be welcoming.
The Raiders are off to a great start this preseason, and Jon Gruden has one of the best preseason ATS records of any current coach. Gruden’s teams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games dating back to when he coached Tampa Bay, and he has put additional emphasis on the preseason with the Hard Knocks cameras on the sidelines.
There is no indication that Aaron Rodgers will play on Thursday but keep an eye on Twitter. If Rodgers doesn’t go, this is an excellent price to bet the Raiders.
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 36.5
The Dolphins are my pick to finish the regular season as the worst team in the NFL, and there has already been some in-fighting. Head coach Brian Flores and wide receiver Kenny Stills have not seen eye to eye, and their relationship is becoming more fraught by the day.
That’s never a good sign, and that’s why I’ll take Jacksonville as a short dog. The Jaguars have not looked sharp in the preseason, getting outscored 53-10 in their two games, but we really haven’t seen the starters yet. Miami doesn’t have a ton of talent, and Jacksonville can take advantage.
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