Handicapping The 2019 Heisman Trophy Futures

The 2019 Heisman Trophy is likely to be won by one of two players: Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailoa. The oddsmakers are basically telling us this as those two players have odds of +275 or shorter, while everyone else is at +1200 or longer.

But remember that college football is a very volatile and unpredictable sport as one injury or jarring upset can change the contours of the whole season. That’s why we’re breaking down the Heisman Trophy futures odds into three categories with three picks in each: someone from the favorites, someone from the second tier and a longshot from the third tier. Here’s who we like:

The Favorites

Trevor Lawrence +250
Tua Tagovailoa +275

These are the two runaway favorites for the award. They met in the national championship game last year when Tagovailoa was not quite 100 percent due to an injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game a month earlier against Georgia. Lawrence had the much better night and Clemson won the national title. Losing that game will probably motivate Tagovailoa this season. Remember that he was the Heisman Trophy front-runner last year entering the month of November but Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray overtook him in the final month of the season. He had 3,966 passing yards, 43 touchdowns and six interceptions. Everyone is talking up how much Lawrence will improve in 2019 but Tagovailoa should take a step forward too.

It would surprise no one if Lawrence won the award. This is a 50-50 shot. However, Tagovailoa might have a little more emotional urgency which will help him get over the top.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa +275

Best Second Tier Candidates

Jonathan Taylor +1200
Justin Herbert +1600
Sam Ehlinger +1600

There are several other candidates in this tier, such as Jake Fromm of Georgia, a national title contender, and Travis Etienne of Clemson, but these appear to be the three most attractive choices. Jonathan Taylor is a good choice because, as Wisconsin’s lead running back, he gets to run behind an excellent offensive line. As long as the quarterback play at Wisconsin is not terrible, Taylor should put up huge numbers and become a serious Heisman threat from Wisconsin. Take a look back to 2014 runner-up Melvin Gordon, who finished one spot behind Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Speaking of Oregon quarterbacks, Justin Herbert could be right there with Taylor in late November and early December. Oregon is a popular pick to win the Pac-12. If the Ducks do win the conference, it will almost surely mean that Herbert has a big year with eye-popping statistics.

The Texas brand name is what can help Sam Ehlinger. For him, it’s is this simple: if Ehlinger can lead Texas to the Big 12 championship and break Oklahoma’s four-year reign over the Big 12 Conference, he will get quite a lot of Heisman buzz in early December. All in all, Herbert is the best positioned candidate in this tier.

Prediction: Justin Herbert +1600

Best Third Tier Candidates

Kelly Bryant +2500
Shea Patterson +2800
Rondale Moore +3300

Kelly Bryant of Missouri needs to get his team to win at least nine games to have a chance here. That will be tough in a division with Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky. However, stranger things have happened. If he has that fire in his belly after getting shunned by Clemson, he might have what it takes.

Shea Patterson, by virtue of playing for Michigan, could get a long look by Heisman voters if Michigan finally wins the Big Ten for the first time since 2004. Patterson could become a much-beloved quarterback in Michigan history if he can pull that off. The issue is that we haven’t seen it from him – or the Michigan passing game – just yet. That could change, though.

As for Purdue’s Rondale Moore, he could get Heisman traction if the Boilermakers can surprise everyone and win the Big Ten West Division championship. This is a team on the rise but we’re not quite sure if they’re on the level of Wisconsin, Iowa or even Nebraska. If they turn out to be, it’s probably because Moore is having a Heisman-worthy campaign.

All in all, Patterson has the best chance to make a splash from this group.

Prediction: Shea Patterson +2800

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