Michigan Wolverines–College Football Betting Week 1

Michigan opens the season as 33.5 point favorites against Middle Tennessee. Though it seems like the Wolverines already have this one in the bag, the victims of arguably the greatest upset in college football history shouldn’t be overlooking anyone. In a strange coincidence, the last time we saw the Blue Raiders they were 32-point losers to the same Appalachian State Mountaineers in the New Orleans Bowl.

Middle Tennessee State at Michigan
Line: Michigan -33.5

Things had been going so well for Michigan in Jim Harbaugh’s fourth season before their date with Ohio State. The Wolverines followed up a 62-39 loss to their rivals with a 41-15 loss to Florida in the Peach Bowl. In other words, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the Wolverines look competitive, much less dominate a game the way they’ll have to in order to cover in Week 1.

Fortunately, the Blue Raiders aren’t exactly Ohio State or Florida. Though this is their first meeting with Michigan, Middle Tennessee has faced current members of the Big 10 on 12 previous occasions. The good news for Michigan is Middle Tennessee is 2-10 in those games. The Blue Raiders are 2-2 against Maryland, 0-3 against Illinois and Minnesota, and 0-1 against Nebraska and Purdue.

The bad news for those betting on Michigan is only one of those teams managed to win by 34 or more. That would be Nebraska, who beat Middle Tennessee 48-7 in 1992.

The Blue Raiders ranked 51st in scoring defense in 2018 and lost five starters. The corners are young and could be taken advantage of. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins could each have a big day if Shea Patterson is on.

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Perhaps the best argument for Michigan is an emotional one. Jim Harbaugh needs everyone to forget about the end of 2018 while new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis will want to make a statement in his first game. A blowout win to open the season could do wonders for everyone’s job security. 

BetOnline.ag’s implied final score is 44-10 based on the spread and total points. The Wolverines allowed 17.6 points per game in 2018 against a Big 10 schedule. Holding the Blue Raiders under 10 is a legitimate possibility.

The Wolverines also have a slight historical edge. Since 1998, the Wolverines have been favored by 33.5 or more in August/September home games eight times. They’re 5-3 against the spread. Jim Harbaugh is 2-1 ATS in such games.

However, the Blue Raiders have had nearly identical success in their situation. They’ve played eight August/September road games as underdogs of 33.5 and are also 5-3 ATS. They’re only 1-1 this decade, though.

Bet Middle Tennessee (+33.5) @ Michigan

The bet: Michigan. Despite some high-profile failures as big favorites, the Wolverines typically don’t make it a habit. They have a chance to make a couple of statements against Middle Tennessee (and Army the next week) before a trip to #19 Wisconsin. With a vested interest in a huge win, the Wolverines send their fans home happy.

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