Handicapping the 2019 NFL MVP Award

The 2019 NFL MVP Award has a few obvious top-tier candidates but we’re digging through all of the layers. We sifted through the main favorites, a second-tier and some long shots to find the best selections in each range. Here are the best bets to win the 2019 NFL MVP Award:

THE FAVORITES

Patrick Mahomes +500
Baker Mayfield: +1100
Aaron Rodgers: +1200

These were the top contenders last year and they figure to be in the heart of the mix this year. Rodgers’ excellence and MVP-level stature require absolutely no explanation. Mahomes is the defending MVP, expected to produce monster numbers once again and lead the Kansas City Chiefs deep into the playoffs. He had 50 touchdowns last season – 11 better than any other quarterback.

Green Bay has a limited roster with a first-year coach, Matt LaFleur. There have also been rumors that him and Aaron Rodgers aren’t on the same page just yet. I’d want a bigger payout given the uncertainty of the situation.

The same goes with Mayfield, who has shot up the board – along with all of the Browns futures. This is a team that’s been hyped up quite a bit. While I do think Mayfield is going to put up strong numbers this season, his offensive line is a big concern in my eyes.

From this group of favorites, Mahomes makes the most sense. He’s a known commodity at the helm of an electric offense that should be even better in 2019 as he has more weapons to work with. From the favorites group, he’s the best bet.

PREDICTION: MAHOMES

BEST SECOND TIER CANDIDATES

Tom Brady +1400
Drew Brees +1400
Philip Rivers +1900

A lot of bettors will view Brady and Brees as good value plays but I’m not so sure. Both teams have shifted to rely more on the run than the pass in recent years and that has somewhat muted their numbers. Brady had 611 or more attempts in four of the five years from 2011 to 2015. He’s averaged 527.6 over the last three seasons. The same goes for Brees, who had at least 627 attempts every year from 2010 to 2016. He’s averaged 512.5 the last two seasons.

From this group, Rivers makes the most sense. He had 4308 passing yards last season and 32 touchdowns, which was the sixth-most. The Chargers don’t have Melvin Gordon suiting up right now, so it might mean they rely on Rivers more. That could give him a good opportunity to pile up the stats.

PREDICTION: RIVERS

Jared Goff
Khalil Mack
Matt Ryan

If the Rams finish in the top two in the NFC yet again, it will be very likely that Jared Goff will have produced a great season. That’s especially true if Todd Gurley is still dealing with the weird knee injury or is limited by it. We could see Goff start to get more credit for this team’s success.

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan could be a good value play at +2600. He wasn’t far off the pace last year as he had 4,924 passing yards (second in the NFL) and 35 touchdowns (third). If the Falcons are back in playoff contention, he could get some attention.

As for Mack, he’s probably the best bet among non-offensive players. The NFL’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year will get a look if the Bears are back in the playoffs.

PREDICTION: RYAN

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